Some insights into data weighting in integrated stock assessments

Abstract The results of fishery stock assessments based on the integrated analysis paradigm can be sensitive to the values for the factors used to weight each of the data types included in the objective function minimized to obtain the estimates of the parameters of the model. These assessments generally include relative abundance index data, length-composition information and conditional age-at-length data, and algorithms have been developed to select weighting factors for each of these data types. This paper introduces methods for weighting conditional age-at-length data that extend an approach developed by Francis (2011) to weight age- and length-composition data. Simulation based on single-zone and two-zone operating models are used to compare five tuning methods that are constructed as combinations of methods to weight each data type. The single-zone operating models allow evaluation of the tuning methods in terms of their ability to provide unbiased estimates of management-related quantities and the correct data weights in the absence of model mis-specification, while the two-zone operating models allow the impacts of model mis-specification on the performance of tuning methods to be explored. The results of assessments are sensitive to data weighting, but the choice of method for data weighting is most consequential when there is model mis-specification. Overall, the results indicate that arithmetic averaging of effective sampling sample sizes from the McAllister and Ianelli (1997) approach is inferior to other methods, and the new method for computing effective sample sizes for conditional age-at-length data seems most appropriate.

[1]  R. Francis The reliability of estimates of natural mortality from stock assessment models , 2012 .

[2]  André E. Punt,et al.  Data weighting for tagging data in integrated size-structured models , 2017 .

[3]  André E. Punt,et al.  A review of integrated analysis in fisheries stock assessment , 2013 .

[4]  Paul B. Conn,et al.  When can we reliably estimate the productivity of fish stocks , 2010 .

[5]  Richard D. Methot,et al.  Including discard data in fisheries stock assessments: Two case studies from south-eastern Australia , 2006 .

[6]  Mark N. Maunder,et al.  Review and evaluation of likelihood functions for composition data in stock-assessment models: Estimating the effective sample size , 2011 .

[7]  David A. Fournier,et al.  A spatially disaggregated, length-based, age-structured population model of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western and central Pacific Ocean , 2001 .

[8]  David A. Fournier,et al.  MULTIFAN-CL: a length-based, age-structured model for fisheries stock assessment, with application to South Pacific albacore, Thunnus alalunga , 1998 .

[9]  R. I. C. C. Francis,et al.  Use of Risk Analysis to Assess Fishery Management Strategies: A Case Study using Orange Roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) on the Chatham Rise, New Zealand , 1992 .

[10]  David A. Fournier,et al.  A General Theory for Analyzing Catch at Age Data , 1982 .

[11]  André E. Punt,et al.  Management strategy evaluation: best practices , 2016 .

[12]  Richard D. Methot,et al.  Can steepness of the stock–recruitment relationship be estimated in fishery stock assessment models? , 2012 .

[13]  Terrance J. Quinn,et al.  Quantitative Fish Dynamics , 1999 .

[14]  James N. Ianelli,et al.  Bayesian stock assessment using catch-age data and the sampling - importance resampling algorithm , 1997 .

[15]  J StewartIan,et al.  Bootstrapping of sample sizes for length- or age-composition data used in stock assessments , 2014 .

[16]  FrancisR.I.C. Chris,et al.  Data weighting in statistical fisheries stock assessment models , 2011 .

[17]  Richard D. Methot,et al.  Adjusting for bias due to variability of estimated recruitments in fishery assessment models , 2011 .

[18]  Laura J. Richards,et al.  Use of contradictory data sources in stock assessments , 1991 .

[19]  Richard D. Methot,et al.  Stock synthesis: A biological and statistical framework for fish stock assessment and fishery management , 2013 .

[20]  André E. Punt,et al.  Can a spatially-structured stock assessment address uncertainty due to closed areas? A case study based on pink ling in Australia , 2016 .

[21]  A. Punt,et al.  Which assessment configurations perform best in the face of spatial heterogeneity in fishing mortality, growth and recruitment? A case study based on pink ling in Australia , 2015 .

[22]  J. Andrew Royle,et al.  10 – MODELING POPULATION DYNAMICS , 2009 .

[23]  André E. Punt,et al.  POPULATION MODELLING OF TASMANIAN ROCK LOBSTER, JASUS EDWARDSII, RESOURCES , 1997 .

[24]  P. R. Neal,et al.  Catch-Age Analysis with Auxiliary Information , 1985 .