Stochastic Road Network Model and Network Stability Analysis

The sources of disruption to road network are numerous and travelers expect not only less travel time but also high reliability under the uncertainty of travel. More than 80 percent of commuters爷 route choices rely on travel time reliability as their primary or second factor according to an route choice investigation. Therefore,the combined stochastic road network model is proposed in this paper which adapts travel time reliability and travel time as the main factors to make route choice. The algorithm can be obtained to solve the proposed model with the help of the stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) model. Meanwhile, the entropy can be obtained to show the stability of road network according to the ratio of travel time reliability and travel time among route choice. These are reminiscent of the situation in ITS where users having information care more about travel time reliability and others having no information emphasize on travel time. An example is illustrated and the road network is more stable when the ratio of the user having information reaches a certain value.