A Method for Predicting Air Traffic Network Flow by Short-Term Probability

The main task of air traffic management is making adjustments when traffic flow reaches to the maximum capacity of air traffic control. It aims to increase the use ratio of airport and airspace. Air traffic flow prediction is one important part of air traffic management. Usually, air traffic prediction is divided into deterministic flow prediction and probability prediction .We research on the probability prediction on the basis of deterministic flow prediction. By analyzing aircrafts’ experienced flight time distribution, giving experienced distribution function and computing method. The data analysis shows that the accuracy rate increased by 22%.