Assessment of expert judgments for safety analyses and performance assessment of geological repository systems

Abstract: Expert judgments are used throughout safety analyses and performance assessments for geological disposal facilities. The term ‘expert elicitation’ in this area has come to be associated with multi-expert, multiyear studies focused on assessing expert judgments about highly complex, highly uncertain factors such as seismic and volcanic hazards. Less attention has been paid to the many other ways in which expert judgment is used and on the availability of structured approaches to improve both the quantification and the documentation of those expert judgments. Depending on the application, there are less intensive approaches to bringing discipline to the process of assessing, using and documenting expert judgment.

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