Metal minerals scarcity: A call for managed austerity and the elements of hope

If we keep following the ruling paradigm of sustained global economic growth, we will soon run out of cheap and plentiful metal minerals of most types. Their extraction rates will no longer follow demand. The looming metal minerals crisis is being caused primarily by the unfolding energy crisis. Conventional mitigation strategies including recycling and substitution are necessary but insufficient without a different way of managing our world’s resources. The stakes are too high to gamble on timely and adequate future technological breakthroughs to solve our problems. The precautionary principle urges us to take immediate action to prevent or at least postpone future shortages. As soon as possible we should impose a co-ordinated policy of managed austerity, not only to address metal minerals shortages but other interrelated resource constraints (energy, water, food) as well. The framework of managed austerity enables a transition towards application (wherever possible) of the ‘elements of hope’: the most abundant metal (and nonmetal) elements. In this way we can save the many critical metal elements for essential applications where complete substitution with the elements of hope is not viable. We call for a transition from growth in tangible possessions and instant, short-lived luxuries towards growth in consciousness, meaning and sense of purpose, connection with nature and reality and good stewardship for the sake of next generations. Introducing metal minerals scarcity and managed austerity Undoubtedly, the global economic growth of the last century, fuelled by and accompanied by exponential growth in population and consumption of resources like fossil fuels, water, food and metal minerals, is unsustainable. Now that we are nearing the second decade of the 21st century, we are beginning to notice the consequences of supply gaps of various resources. This paper focuses on the issue of metal minerals scarcity within the constellation of interconnected problems of scarcity of water and food, pollution and climate change and most notably scarcity of energy. In case of unlimited energy supply, metal minerals extraction would only be limited by the total amount of mineral resources. However, due to the scarcity of energy, the extraction rates of most types of metal minerals will cease to follow demand. Probably the only acceptable long-term solution to avoid a global systemic collapse of industrial society, caused by these resource constraints, is a path towards managed austerity. Managed austerity will have to be a combination of changes in technology and changes in both individual and collective human behaviour. Managed austerity could prevent non-desirable ‘solutions’ by doing much too little much too late (also known as ‘business as usual’) which could ultimately result in large scale conflicts, global chaos and mass starvation of the world’s population.