Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis

[1]  David R. Mandel,et al.  Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence , 2018 .

[2]  Hosam Al-Samarraie,et al.  A review of brainstorming techniques in higher education , 2018 .

[3]  Rubén Arcos,et al.  The impact of intelligence on decision-making: the EU and the Arab Spring , 2018 .

[4]  Derek Groen,et al.  A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[5]  Mandeep K. Dhami,et al.  Critical Review of Analytic Techniques , 2016, 2016 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (EISIC).

[6]  Philip E. Tetlock,et al.  Rethinking the training of intelligence analysts , 2016 .

[7]  Philip E. Tetlock,et al.  Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments , 2016, Judgment and Decision Making.

[8]  Mandeep K. Dhami,et al.  Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science , 2015, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

[9]  Michael J. Morell,et al.  The Great War of Our Time: The CIA's Fight Against Terrorism--From Al Qa'ida to Isis , 2015 .

[10]  Philip Tetlock,et al.  Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions , 2015, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

[11]  Abraham Carmeli,et al.  Asynchronous Brainstorming in an Industrial Setting , 2015, Hum. Factors.

[12]  Jie Zhang,et al.  Wind Power Ramp Event Forecasting Using a Stochastic Scenario Generation Method , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

[13]  Philip Tetlock,et al.  The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics. , 2015, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

[14]  Jacinta C. Nwachukwu,et al.  Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring , 2014 .

[15]  Alan Barnes,et al.  Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[16]  Richards J. Heuer,et al.  Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis , 2014 .

[17]  Sydney E. Scott,et al.  Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament , 2014, Psychological science.

[18]  A. Bayat.  The Arab Spring and its Surprises , 2013 .

[19]  Dilek Önkal,et al.  Scenarios as channels of forecast advice , 2013 .

[20]  Muhammad Amer,et al.  A review of scenario planning , 2013 .

[21]  Jeff Goodwin,et al.  Why we were surprised (Again) by the Arab spring , 2011 .

[22]  Martin Nowack,et al.  Review of Delphi-Based Scenario Studies: Quality and Design Considerations , 2011 .

[23]  George Wright,et al.  Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future , 2011 .

[24]  Paul B. Paulus,et al.  Effects of Quantity and Quality Instructions on Brainstorming , 2011 .

[25]  Vincent R. Brown,et al.  Directing idea generation using brainstorming with specific novelty goals , 2011 .

[26]  George Wright,et al.  Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda , 2011 .

[27]  George Wright,et al.  The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events , 2010 .

[28]  Rachel T. Johnson,et al.  Calibration of an agent-based simulation model depicting a refugee camp scenario , 2009, Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).

[29]  P. Goodwin,et al.  Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method , 2009 .

[30]  L. Tesfatsion,et al.  Scenario generation for price forecasting in restructured wholesale power markets , 2009, 2009 IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition.

[31]  Stephen Marrin.  Training and Educating U.S. Intelligence Analysts , 2009 .

[32]  Ulf Pillkahn,et al.  Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development: Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise , 2008 .

[33]  G. Finnveden,et al.  Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide , 2006 .

[34]  George Wright,et al.  The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning , 2005 .

[35]  L. Comfort,et al.  Complex Systems in Crisis: Anticipation and Resilience in Dynamic Environments , 2001 .

[36]  Adrian Furnham,et al.  The Brainstorming Myth , 2000 .

[37]  George Wright,et al.  Future‐focussed thinking: combining scenario planning with decision analysis , 1999 .

[38]  Scott G. Isaksen,et al.  A Review of Brainstorming Research: Six Critical Issues for Inquiry , 1998 .

[39]  Kristine M. Kuhn,et al.  Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation , 1996 .

[40]  Adrian Furnham,et al.  Personality differences and group versus individual brainstorming , 1995 .

[41]  P. Paulus,et al.  The Role of Social Anxiousness in Group Brainstorming , 1995 .

[42]  P. Schoemaker.  Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking , 1995 .

[43]  Ahti Salo,et al.  Forecasting with scenarios , 1993 .

[44]  M. Foster,et al.  Scenario planning for small businesses , 1993 .

[45]  Mary T. Dzindolet,et al.  Social influence processes in group brainstorming. , 1993 .

[46]  E. Salas,et al.  Productivity loss in brainstorming groups: A meta-analytic integration. , 1991 .

[47]  W. Huss,et al.  Scenario planning—What style should you use? , 1987 .

[48]  Steven P. Schnaars,et al.  The use of multiple scenarios in sales forecasting: An empirical test , 1987 .

[49]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Stalking the elusive "vividness" effect. , 1982 .

[50]  G. Ducot,et al.  A typology for scenarios , 1980 .