Stochastic Programming: Approximation via Scenarios

We shall survey and classify various ways of approximation of the true probability distribution by a discrete distribution concentrated in a nite number of atoms, called scenarios, which occur with preas-signed probabilities. Resistance of the numerical results with respect to the choice of scenarios and/or of their probabilities and also the relation between results obtained for the selected scenarios and those valid for the true underlying distribution are of a great practical interest. We shall discuss these questions bearing in mind the diverse origin of scenarios that puts limitations both on the choice of suitable approaches to the analysis and on the obtained conclusions.

[1]  S. Zenios,et al.  Capturing the Correlations of Fixed-income Instruments , 1994 .

[2]  E. Beale ON MINIMIZING A CONVEX FUNCTION SUBJECT TO LINEAR INEQUALITIES , 1955 .

[3]  Alexander Shapiro,et al.  Quantitative stability in stochastic programming , 1994, Math. Program..

[4]  Jeremy F. Shapiro,et al.  Stochastic programming models for dedicated portfolio selection , 1988 .

[5]  Horand I. Gassmann,et al.  Optimal harvest of a forest in the presence of uncertainty , 1989 .

[6]  G. B. Dantzig,et al.  Approaches to Stochastic Programming with Application to Electric Power Systems , 1993 .

[7]  T. Huoponen Stochastic Optimization of a Multi-currency Bond Portfolio , 1994 .

[8]  Michael A. H. Dempster,et al.  A financial expert decision support system , 1988 .

[9]  Martin R. Holmer,et al.  A stochastic programming model for money management , 1995 .

[10]  Jonathan Eckstein,et al.  Stochastic dedication: designing fixed income portfolios using massively parallel Benders decomposition , 1993 .

[11]  Vittorio Moriggia,et al.  Postoptimality for Scenario Based Financial Planning Models with an Application to Bond Portfolio Management , 1998 .

[12]  Julia L. Higle,et al.  Stopping Rules for Stochastic Decomposition , 1996 .

[13]  Yuri Ermoliev,et al.  Numerical techniques for stochastic optimization , 1988 .

[14]  Gerd Infanger,et al.  Monte Carlo (importance) sampling within a benders decomposition algorithm for stochastic linear programs , 1991, Ann. Oper. Res..

[15]  Jitka Dupa Postoptimality for multistage stochastic linear programs , 1995 .

[16]  J. Mulvey Generating Scenarios for the Towers Perrin Investment System , 1996 .

[17]  Laureano F. Escudero,et al.  Production planning via scenario modelling , 1993, Ann. Oper. Res..

[18]  Jitka Dupačová,et al.  Uncertainty about Input Data in Portfolio Management , 1996 .

[19]  John R. Birge,et al.  Modeling investment uncertainty in the costs of global CO2 emission policy , 1995 .

[20]  C. Leake Discrete Event Systems: Sensitivity Analysis and Stochastic Optimization by the Score Function Method , 1994 .

[21]  A. Charnes,et al.  Chance-Constrained Programming , 1959 .

[22]  Pieter Klaassen,et al.  Discretized Reality and Spurious Profits in Stochastic Programming Models for Asset/Liability Management , 1996 .

[23]  Roger J.-B. Wets,et al.  Sublinear upper bounds for stochastic programs with recourse , 1987, Math. Program..

[24]  Alan J. King,et al.  Stochastic Programming Problems: Examples from the Literature , 1988 .

[25]  Martin R. Holmer,et al.  Dynamic models for fixed-income portfolio management under uncertainty , 1998 .

[26]  R. Wets,et al.  Epi‐consistency of convex stochastic programs , 1991 .

[27]  Stavros A. Zenios,et al.  Integrated Simulation and Optimization Models for Tracking Indices of Fixed-Income Securities , 1994, Oper. Res..

[28]  C. Dert Asset Liability Management for Pension Funds: A Multistage Chance Constrained Programming Approach , 1995 .

[29]  Willem K. Klein Haneveld,et al.  Investment evaluation based on the commercial scope the production of natural gas , 1995, Ann. Oper. Res..

[30]  Peter Kall,et al.  Approximation Techniques in Stochastic Programming , 1988 .

[31]  J. Mulvey,et al.  Stochastic network programming for financial planning problems , 1992 .

[32]  G. Infanger,et al.  Planning under uncertainty solving large-scale stochastic linear programs , 1992 .

[33]  An Approximative Solution of a Stochastic Optimization Problem , 1978 .

[34]  François V. Louveaux,et al.  A Solution Method for Multistage Stochastic Programs with Recourse with Application to an Energy Investment Problem , 1980, Oper. Res..

[35]  A. Madansky Inequalities for Stochastic Linear Programming Problems , 1960 .

[36]  Ron S. Dembo,et al.  Managing Hidroeléctrica Española's Hydroelectric Power System , 1990 .

[37]  A. Soyster,et al.  Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning with Uncertain Load Forecasts , 1982 .

[38]  Jery R. Stedinger,et al.  SOCRATES: A system for scheduling hydroelectric generation under uncertainty , 1995, Ann. Oper. Res..

[39]  J. Mulvey,et al.  Stochastic network optimization models for investment planning , 1989 .

[40]  Stein W. Wallace A piecewise linear upper bound on the network recourse function , 1987, Math. Program..

[41]  Marida Bertocchi,et al.  Management of bond portfolios via stochastic programming — postoptimality and sensitivity analysis , 1996 .

[42]  Stephen P. Bradley,et al.  A DYNAMIC MODEL FOR BOND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT , 1975 .

[43]  S. Zenios,et al.  Constructing Optimal Samples from a Binomial Lattice , 1993 .

[44]  J. Dupacová Stability in stochastic programming with recourse. Contaminated distributions , 1986 .

[45]  P. Kall,et al.  Stochastric programming with recourse: upper bounds and moment problems: a review , 1988 .

[46]  Ravi Jagannathan,et al.  Use of Sample Information in Stochastic Recourse and Chance-Constrained Programming Models , 1985 .

[47]  George B. Dantzig,et al.  Parallel processors for planning under uncertainty , 1990 .

[48]  Y. Smeers,et al.  Optimal Investments for Electricity Generation: A Stochastic Model and a Test-Problem , 1988 .

[49]  M. V. F. Pereira,et al.  Multi-stage stochastic optimization applied to energy planning , 1991, Math. Program..

[50]  Michael A. H. Dempster,et al.  Evpi-Based Importance Sampling Solution Procedures for Multistage Stochastic Linear Programmes on Parallel Mimd Architectures , 1997 .

[51]  R. Wets,et al.  Designing approximation schemes for stochastic optimization problems, in particular for stochastic programs with recourse , 1986 .

[52]  J. Dupacová Stability and sensitivity-analysis for stochastic programming , 1991 .

[53]  M. Talagrand Sharper Bounds for Gaussian and Empirical Processes , 1994 .

[54]  Roger J.-B. Wets,et al.  Probabilistic bounds (via large deviations) for the solutions of stochastic programming problems , 1995, Ann. Oper. Res..

[55]  Werner Römisch,et al.  A simple recourse model for power dispatch under uncertain demand , 1995, Ann. Oper. Res..

[56]  J. Jensen Sur les fonctions convexes et les inégalités entre les valeurs moyennes , 1906 .

[57]  J. Birge,et al.  A separable piecewise linear upper bound for stochastic linear programs , 1988 .

[58]  A. M. Ireland,et al.  Scenario formulation in an algebraic modelling language , 1995, Ann. Oper. Res..

[59]  M. Kusý Bank asset and liability management , 1978 .

[60]  C. H. Rosa Pathways of Economic Development in an Uncertain Environment: A Finite Scenario Approach to the U.S. Region Under Carbon Emission Restrictions , 1994 .

[61]  F. Black,et al.  A One-Factor Model of Interest Rates and Its Application to Treasury Bond Options , 1990 .

[62]  Michael A. H. Dempster,et al.  Dynamic Stochastic Programming for Asset-Liability Management , 1998 .

[63]  Werner Römisch,et al.  Lipschitz Stability for Stochastic Programs with Complete Recourse , 1996, SIAM J. Optim..

[64]  Werner Römisch,et al.  A Stochastic Programming Model for Optimal Power Dispatch: Stability and Numerical Treatment , 1992 .

[65]  Stavros A. Zenios,et al.  A stochastic programming model for funding single premium deferred annuities , 1996, Math. Program..

[66]  M. Pereira,et al.  Stochastic Optimization of a Multireservoir Hydroelectric System: A Decomposition Approach , 1985 .

[67]  Soren S. Nielsen,et al.  Importance Sampling in Lattice Pricing Models , 1997 .

[68]  Jitka Dupacová,et al.  Stability in stochastic programming with recourse-estimated parameters , 1984, Math. Program..

[69]  Jitka Dupacová,et al.  Scenario-based stochastic programs: Resistance with respect to sample , 1996, Ann. Oper. Res..

[70]  George B. Dantzig,et al.  Multi-stage stochastic linear programs for portfolio optimization , 1993, Ann. Oper. Res..