Dynamic density: measuring and predicting sector complexity [ATC]

In the present air traffic control system, traffic management personnel use the enhanced traffic management system (ETMS) 'monitor alert' parameter as a strategic planning tool to identify and predict sector traffic complexity, so that strategic and tactical air traffic decisions such as flow modifications, staff planning, and sector redesigns can be planned. The monitor alert parameter is based solely on aircraft count. For several years, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has supported the development of a better method to measure and predict sector complexity, referred to as dynamic density (DD), to provide a more encompassing, useful tool for today's air traffic control environment. This paper reviews a multi-year, multi-organizational research effort to develop and validate several proposed DD metrics. It provides an overview of the DD metrics under consideration, the study approach to collect operational subjective data, and the development and validation of a 'best' DD metric.