On the prediction of geochemical parameters (TOC, S1 and S2) by considering well log parameters using ANFIS and LSSVM strategies

Abstract Geochemical parameters are useful properties to enhance hydrocarbon exploration certainty. Though, attaining these parameters, for instance total organic carbon (TOC), volatile and residual hydrocarbon (S1 & S2) has a challenge for geologists due to high cost and time consumption. Therefore, addressing this issue has become an interesting subject for many researchers. As a result, on the ground of conventional well logs, vast kinds of methods, for example, back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN), have been introduced to solve this problem. Implementing these kinds of methods bring scientists tremendous amounts of information related to the richness of organic matter in a meantime. However, the precision of the aforementioned method is inadequate and BPANN is affected negatively by local optimum. Therefore, in the current study to cope with this issue and alleviate the uncertainty, Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) and Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) algorithms cooperating with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) were suggested as a suitable method to increase the precision of estimating geochemical factors. The Data bank for this research was attained from available sources of Shahejie formation from Bohai bay basin located in China which consists of geochemical and well logging information. Outputs of this study illustrated that ANFIS-PSO and LSSVM-PSO have a great ability to estimate geochemical parameters. The values of R2 obtained for these two models in order to predict the output parameters of TOC, S1 and S2 are equal to 0.6846 & 0.785, 0.6864 & 0.778, and 0.7343 & 0.8128, respectively. The statistical comparison between these models shows that LSSVM-PSO shows a better performance compared to another model. Also, a new attempt was implemented to evaluate the impacts of input parameters on the outputs and the results of sensitivity analysis suggest that transit interval time had the greatest effect on the output parameters.

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