Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Prediction: Different Approaches for Obtaining the Best Model

ences between approaches used to build long-term earthquake rupture forecasts and those used to conduct systematic earth quake predictability experiments. Our aim is to clarify the dif ferent approaches, and we suggest that these differences, while perhaps not intuitive, are understandable and appropriate for their specific goals. We note that what constitutes the “best” model is not uniquely defined, and the definition often depends on the needs and goals of the model’s consumer. Words with the roots “forecast” and “predict” are used nearly synonymously. Indeed, in many languages, these two words translate to the same term, and in everyday English usage, these words are essentially interchangeable. In discus