Dynamic Modeling of Cascading Failure in Power Systems

The modeling of cascading failure in power systems is difficult because of the many different mechanisms involved; no single model captures all of these mechanisms. Understanding the relative importance of these different mechanisms is important for choosing which mechanisms need to be modeled for particular applications. This work presents a dynamic simulation model of both power networks and protection systems, which can simulate a wider variety of cascading outage mechanisms relative to existing quasi-steady-state (QSS) models. This paper describes the model and demonstrates how different mechanisms interact. In order to test the model, we simulated a batch of randomly selected N-2 contingencies for several different static load configurations, and found that the distributions of blackout sizes and event lengths from the simulator correlate well with historical trends. The results also show that load models have significant impacts on the cascading risks. Finally, the dynamic model was compared against a simple dc-power-flow based QSS model; we find that the two models tend to agree for the early stages of cascading but produce substantially different results for later stages.

[1]  Réka Albert,et al.  Structural vulnerability of the North American power grid. , 2004, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[2]  I. Dobson,et al.  Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Methodologies and Challenges , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[3]  Daniel Bienstock,et al.  Adaptive online control of cascading blackouts , 2011, 2011 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.

[4]  Siddhartha Kumar Khaitan,et al.  Fast parallelized algorithms for on-line extended-term dynamic cascading analysis , 2009, 2009 IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition.

[5]  Alexander J. Flueck,et al.  Real-Time Power System Dynamics Simulation Using a Parallel Block-Jacobi Preconditioned Newton-GMRES Scheme , 2012, 2012 SC Companion: High Performance Computing, Networking Storage and Analysis.

[6]  Babu Narayanan,et al.  POWER SYSTEM STABILITY AND CONTROL , 2015 .

[7]  M. Stubbe,et al.  EUROSTAG, software for the simulation of power system dynamics. Its application to the study of a voltage collapse scenario , 1992 .

[8]  W. Marsden I and J , 2012 .

[9]  WagnerDorothea,et al.  Dijkstra's algorithm on-line , 2000 .

[10]  Ian Dobson,et al.  Validating OPA with WECC Data , 2013, 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[11]  P. Hines,et al.  Do topological models provide good information about electricity infrastructure vulnerability? , 2010, Chaos.

[12]  Daniel S. Kirschen,et al.  Criticality in a cascading failure blackout model , 2006 .

[13]  V. E. Lynch,et al.  Critical points and transitions in an electric power transmission model for cascading failure blackouts. , 2002, Chaos.

[14]  Ted K. A. Brekken,et al.  Load modeling methodologies for cascading outage simulation considering power system stability , 2013, 2013 1st IEEE Conference on Technologies for Sustainability (SusTech).

[15]  Jian-Wei Wang,et al.  Cascade-based attack vulnerability on the US power grid. , 2009 .

[16]  R D Zimmerman,et al.  MATPOWER: Steady-State Operations, Planning, and Analysis Tools for Power Systems Research and Education , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[17]  Daniel Kirschen,et al.  Survey of tools for risk assessment of cascading outages , 2011, 2011 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.

[18]  Gang Wang,et al.  A Study of Self-Organized Criticality of Power System Under Cascading Failures Based on AC-OPF With Voltage Stability Margin , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[19]  R. Stephenson A and V , 1962, The British journal of ophthalmology.

[20]  Benedikt Nordhoff,et al.  Dijkstra’s Algorithm , 2013 .

[21]  Hui Ren,et al.  Long-Term Effect of the n-1 Criterion on Cascading Line Outages in an Evolving Power Transmission Grid , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[22]  Nasir Ghani,et al.  Stochastic Analysis of Cascading-Failure Dynamics in Power Grids , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[23]  I. Dobson,et al.  Estimating the Propagation and Extent of Cascading Line Outages From Utility Data With a Branching Process , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[24]  H. H. Happ,et al.  Power System Control and Stability , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[25]  I. Dobson,et al.  Initial review of methods for cascading failure analysis in electric power transmission systems IEEE PES CAMS task force on understanding, prediction, mitigation and restoration of cascading failures , 2008, 2008 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting - Conversion and Delivery of Electrical Energy in the 21st Century.

[26]  P. Hines,et al.  Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications , 2009 .

[27]  Paul Hines,et al.  A “Random Chemistry” Algorithm for Identifying Collections of Multiple Contingencies That Initiate Cascading Failure , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[28]  Benjamin A Carreras,et al.  Complex systems analysis of series of blackouts: cascading failure, critical points, and self-organization. , 2007, Chaos.

[29]  B. Fardanesh,et al.  Assessing vulnerability to cascading outages , 2009, 2009 IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition.

[30]  Heidi K. Thornquist,et al.  Developing a dynamic model of cascading failure for high performance computing using trilinos , 2011, HiPCNA-PG '11.

[31]  Shilpa Chakravartula,et al.  Complex Networks: Structure and Dynamics , 2014 .

[32]  Ian Dobson,et al.  "Dual Graph" and "Random Chemistry" Methods for Cascading Failure Analysis , 2013, 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[33]  Aaas News,et al.  Book Reviews , 1893, Buffalo Medical and Surgical Journal.

[34]  Johannes Schumacher,et al.  An Introduction to Hybrid Dynamical Systems, Springer Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences 251 , 1999 .

[35]  Seth Blumsack,et al.  Topological Models and Critical Slowing down: Two Approaches to Power System Blackout Risk Analysis , 2011, 2011 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[36]  Quan Chen,et al.  Composite Power System Vulnerability Evaluation to Cascading Failures Using Importance Sampling and Antithetic Variates , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[37]  P. Hines,et al.  Evaluating the impact of modeling assumptions for cascading failure simulation , 2012, 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.

[38]  Seth Blumsack,et al.  Comparing the Topological and Electrical Structure of the North American Electric Power Infrastructure , 2011, IEEE Systems Journal.

[39]  T. Van Cutsem,et al.  Simplified time-domain simulation of detailed long-term dynamic models , 2009, 2009 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting.

[40]  Hadi Saadat,et al.  Power Systems Analysis , 2002 .

[41]  Jun Yan,et al.  Cascading Failure Analysis With DC Power Flow Model and Transient Stability Analysis , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.