A verbal protocol analysis of choice under ambiguity

Abstract Einhorn and Hogarth's (1985) ambiguity model was used as a theoretical framework for analyzing the verbal protocols of decision makers faced with a choice between an uncertain option and an ambiguous option. The presentation of the ambiguous option was varied to examine the effect of presenting a point estimate versus an interval estimate on choice. The results of these analyses provided some support for the proposition that ambiguity avoidance is due to an anchoring and adjustment process in which decision makers underweight imagined probabilities above an estimate anchor. Ambiguity-avoiding decision makers were more likely to consider pessimistic probabilities of success and ambiguity-seeking decision makers were more likely to consider optimistic probabilities. Contrary to the predictions of previous researchers, the presentation of an interval estimate led to ambiguity seeking and the presentation of a point estimate led to ambiguity avoidance. Exploratory analyses revealed some themes that may guide future research on choice under ambiguity.