An introduction to predictive microbiology and the development and use of probability models withClostridium botulinum

SummaryTraditionally, food microbiologists have relied on empirical studies to assess the microbiological safety of a particular food. However, these studies are time-consuming and, because only one or two inhibitory factors are usually dealt with, they are often of limited value. Today, the food industry is constantly developing new products with new formulations and alternative packaging strategies, resulting in a wide diversity of factors to be studied. It is therefore advantageous to develop mathematical models describing microbial growth which may be used to predict how changes in formulations or storage conditions may affect microbial growth. A brief overview of the basic concepts and steps of modeling procedures will be presented, along with some of the difficulties encountered therein. The safety of foods with respect toClostridium botulinum depends on the probability (P) of growth or of toxigenesis, andP has been the dependent variable in several models. The development of these probability models will be discussed.