Pickup Locations and Bus Allocation for Transit-Based Evacuation Planning with Demand Uncertainty

This paper develops a decision-support model for transit-based evacuation planning under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty refers to the uncertainty associated with the number of transit-dependent evacuees. A robust optimization model is proposed to locate the pick-up points for evacuees to assemble, and allocate available buses to transport the assembled evacuees between the pick-up locations and different public shelters. The model is formulated as a mixed integer linear program and is solved via a cutting-plane scheme. The numerical example based on the Sioux Falls network demonstrates that the robust plan yields lower total evacuation time and is reliable in serving the realized evacuee demand.

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