Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.Persistent atmospheric ridging in the North Pacific steered storms away and led to the California drought of 2012-16. Here the authors use simulations to show that sea-ice changes trigger reorganization of tropical convection resulting in drying over California.

[1]  Edward R. Cook,et al.  North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought , 2006 .

[2]  J. Chiang,et al.  South Pacific Split Jet, ITCZ shifts, and atmospheric North–South linkages during abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period , 2014 .

[3]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Covariability of Components of Poleward Atmospheric Energy Transports on Seasonal and Interannual Timescales , 2003 .

[4]  R. Finkel,et al.  Extreme southwestern margin of late Quaternary glaciation in North America: Timing and controls , 2003 .

[5]  G. Danabasoglu,et al.  The Community Climate System Model Version 4 , 2011 .

[6]  J. Beck,et al.  Moisture variability in the southwestern United States linked to abrupt glacial climate change , 2010 .

[7]  B. Cook,et al.  Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains , 2015, Science Advances.

[8]  K. Mo,et al.  Linkages between 200-mb Tropical and Extratropical Circulation Anomalies during the 1986–1989 ENSO Cycle , 1993 .

[9]  K. D. Adams.  Age and paleoclimatic significance of late Holocene lakes in the Carson Sink, NV, USA , 2003, Quaternary Research.

[10]  P. Gent,et al.  Historical Antarctic mean sea ice area, sea ice trends, and winds in CMIP5 simulations , 2013 .

[11]  Michael A. Palecki,et al.  Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[12]  Tapio Schneider,et al.  Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone , 2014, Nature.

[13]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[14]  J. Kay,et al.  The Boundary Layer Response to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for High-Latitude Climate Feedbacks , 2011 .

[15]  S. Stine.  Late holocene fluctuations of Mono Lake, eastern California , 1990 .

[16]  Sarah M. Kang,et al.  The Response of the ITCZ to Extratropical Thermal Forcing: Idealized Slab-Ocean Experiments with a GCM , 2008 .

[17]  Dennis L. Hartmann,et al.  Trends in the CERES Dataset, 2000-13: The Effects of Sea Ice and Jet Shifts and Comparison to Climate Models , 2014 .

[18]  L. Thompson,et al.  Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years , 2011, Nature.

[19]  R. Stouffer,et al.  Response of the ITCZ to Northern Hemisphere cooling , 2006 .

[20]  J. Turner,et al.  An Initial Assessment of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the CMIP5 Models , 2013 .

[21]  L. Sloan,et al.  Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west , 2004 .

[22]  D. Frierson,et al.  Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry over the Twentieth Century and in Future Projections , 2013 .

[23]  Keith M. Prufer,et al.  Aerosol forcing of the position of the intertropical convergence zone since ad 1550 , 2015 .

[24]  S. Burns,et al.  Variable winter moisture in the southwestern United States linked to rapid glacial climate shifts , 2010 .

[25]  W. Cheng,et al.  Fast teleconnections to the tropical Atlantic sector from Atlantic thermohaline adjustment , 2008 .

[26]  D. Lawrence,et al.  Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model , 2011 .

[27]  J. A. Kleppea,et al.  Duration and severity of Medieval drought in the Lake Tahoe Basin , 2022 .

[28]  A. Hall,et al.  California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble , 2013 .

[29]  I. Hendy,et al.  Vegetation response to southern California drought during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and early Little Ice Age (AD 800–1600) , 2015 .

[30]  P. Ditlevsen,et al.  Southward Intertropical Convergence Zone Shifts and Implications for an Atmospheric Bipolar Seesaw , 2013 .

[31]  J. Chiang,et al.  Global energy budget changes to high latitude North Atlantic cooling and the tropical ITCZ response , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[32]  R. Neale,et al.  The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments , 2013 .

[33]  C. Deser,et al.  The Role of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling in the Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss , 2015 .

[34]  J. Neelin,et al.  A prototype for convective margin shifts , 2007 .

[35]  G. Haug,et al.  Rapid changes in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last glacial. , 2000, Science.

[36]  S. Stine,et al.  Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during mediaeval time , 1994, Nature.

[37]  Isla R. Simpson,et al.  Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate , 2016 .

[38]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures , 1998 .

[39]  Nicholas A. Bond,et al.  Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific , 2015 .

[40]  C. Deser,et al.  Does ocean coupling matter for the northern extratropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss? , 2016 .

[41]  C. Bitz,et al.  Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone , 2005 .

[42]  Muyin Wang,et al.  When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free? , 2013 .

[43]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Causes and predictability of the 2011-14 California drought : assessment report , 2014 .

[44]  W. Broecker,et al.  The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change , 2005 .

[45]  T. Delworth,et al.  Simulated Tropical Response to a Substantial Weakening of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation , 2005 .

[46]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Links between tropical rainfall and North Atlantic climate during the last glacial period , 2013 .

[47]  Y. Jang,et al.  Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia , 2015 .

[48]  M. Kirby,et al.  A 9170-year record of decadal-to-multi-centennial scale pluvial episodes from the coastal Southwest United States: a role for atmospheric rivers? , 2012 .

[49]  Masson-Delmotte,et al.  The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[50]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  Meteorological Aspects of the El Ni�o/Southern Oscillation , 1983, Science.

[51]  D. Richards,et al.  Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies , 2004, Nature.

[52]  A. Mix,et al.  Eastern Pacific cooling and Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation , 2006, Nature.

[53]  H. Hsu,et al.  Compounding effects of warm sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice on the extreme circulation over the extratropical North Pacific and North America during the 2013–2014 boreal winter , 2015 .

[54]  Naomi Naik,et al.  Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States , 2013 .

[55]  Gerald H. Haug,et al.  Southward Migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone Through the Holocene , 2001, Science.

[56]  L. Hipps,et al.  Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013–2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint , 2014 .

[57]  R. Seager,et al.  Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 , 2015 .

[58]  J. A. Dorale,et al.  Synchronous millennial-scale climatic changes in the Great Basin and the North Atlantic during the last interglacial , 2007 .

[59]  J. Sewall.  Precipitation Shifts over Western North America as a Result of Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover: The Coupled System Response , 2005 .

[60]  J. Neelin,et al.  Eastern margin variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone , 2008 .

[61]  P. Sardeshmukh,et al.  Factors Determining the Extratropical Response to Equatorial Diabatic Heating Anomalies. , 1993 .

[62]  S. Xie,et al.  Global Teleconnections in Response to a Shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation , 2008 .

[63]  R. Saravanan,et al.  The Role of the Wind–Evaporation–Sea Surface Temperature (WES) Feedback as a Thermodynamic Pathway for the Equatorward Propagation of High-Latitude Sea Ice–Induced Cold Anomalies , 2011 .

[64]  R. Knutti,et al.  Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections , 2013 .

[65]  Daniel Griffin,et al.  How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought? , 2014 .

[66]  KenCaldeira,et al.  Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate , 2015 .

[67]  J. Munroe,et al.  Temporal correspondence between pluvial lake highstands in the southwestern US and Heinrich Event 1 , 2013 .