Production forecast of China׳s rare earths based on the Generalized Weng model and policy recommendations

China is currently the largest producer of rare earths in the world, mining at least 90% of world total production. Because of China׳s dominant position in global rare earths production and the constant development of rare earths terminal industries, the study of China׳s rare earth supply trends has gradually been a hot topic of world interest. However, the literature shows that previous research has mainly focused on the estimation of rare earth supply and its influence based on experiential judge of current and premonitory new rare earth production capacity, rather than on quantitative modeling. The results are usually estimations of the productions of near future rather than longer term. Forecasts by mine types are particularly rare. Considering the different applications and demands of different rare earth elements, the Generalized Weng model, a widely used quantitative model in exhaustible resource forecast, is adopted in this study to predict the production of the three major rare earths in China (namely, mixed rare earth, bastnasite and ion-absorbed rare earth) before 2050. The results show that production of mixed rare earth will peak in 2014 at 62,757t, followed thereafter by an annual decline of 2%; production of bastnasite will peak in 2018 at 32,312t, preceded by an annual increase of 1.67% and followed by an annual decrease of 4%; production of ion-absorbed rare earth will peak in 2024 at 45,793t, preceded by an annual increase of 1.72% and followed by an annual decrease of 4%. Based on these findings, Chinese government should enforce environmental and resource exhaustible taxes soon and different domestic regulations for different rare earths according to their different production potential. Countries without resource endowments should make efforts to develop rare earth recycling technologies and seek substitutes for rare earth resources, in addition to keeping good international trading relationships. Countries with some kind of rare earths should start or restart their rare earth mines to gradually reduce dependence on China׳s supply.