The Effect of Xiamen-Shenzhen Railway on Shanwei's Road Transportation and the Development Strategy

To study the effect of railway on roadway passenger transportation,this paper selects seven indexes including security level and economy level to calculate the utility values of transportation product based on the viewpoint of both traveler preference and character on the mode of transportation.The solutions of Eigenfunction in traditional Logit model are improved.According to traveling behavior and preference survey,this paper uses both the AHP method and possible satisfaction method to solve the Logit model.Compared with the typical method and the results of the survey,the improved model in the case of small sample size is more effective.The roadway passenger volume will be reduced by56%,and the railway and highway passenger traffic sharing rates will be 56%and 44%respectively in the next 2years,which is obtained by using quadratic time series and the improved model.The study results demonstrate that the railway will have a serious impact on roadway passenger transportation.Finally,several recommendations are presented for the development of roadway passenger transportation through SWOT strategic analysis.