The potential and promise of physics-based wildfire simulation

Abstract Wildfire — that is the unmanaged, uncontrolled burning of forests, brushlands, or grasslands with or without the presence of structures — is an increasing threat to society. We briefly review the extent of this threat, particularly its relationship to changes in the systems it threatens, and discuss its management. Recent developments in computer models of wildfire are reviewed and their application to several aspects of the wildfire threat are proposed in the context of a national resource. The requirements of an operational wildfire prediction center are discussed as a method to leverage existing and near-term capabilities into new tools to help mitigate the potential threat of this natural process.

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