Early Dynamics of a Major Scientific Project: Testing the Social Bubble Hypothesis

In this paper we present an analysis of a major scientific project in the making with the goal of testing our ‘social bubbles’ hypothesis. This framework claims that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters of a project weave a network based on positive feedback, leading to widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment by those involved in the respective project, beyond what would be rationalized by a standard cost-benefit analysis. As a case study, we analyse a Future and Emerging Technology (FET) Flagship candidate, called FuturICT. Specifically, we examine the efforts of the project management to build and promote the project by creating positive feedback loops of rein-forcing behaviours. We found that the expectations fostered by the promoters of the FuturICT idea was not shared by everyone involved in the project; first and foremost because several of the participants did not fully endorse the overall vision and goals. As a consequence, those not unified under the umbrella of the core vision built niches for themselves. These niches were, however, stimulating enough to entice the scholars to stay with the project. With regard to risk-taking, many appeared to be well aware of the risks involved. Those who were ready to take some risk did it mainly based on a force of habit rather than being enthused by the vision and goals. On the other hand, risk taking was found especially during workshops and meetings. This was in the form of the time allocation of participants, who seemed to not count their precious time given to the project. The FuturICT project thus seems to qualify as a social bubble in the making when considered at the group level, while risk-perception at the individual level remained higher than expected.