Potential Impacts of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise on Alexandria Governorate, Egypt

century. Using a GIS-based inundation analysis and an erosion modeling approach on the Mediterra nean coast, the physical and socioeconomic vulnerability of Alexandria Governorate to acceler ated sea-level rise is investigated. A one-meter rise in sea level could inundate 1,248 km2, or 68% of the Governorate. This area contains 95% of existing agriculture, 70% of existing industry, 50% of existing residential areas, and has a present population of about 2 million. Sea-level rise would also adversely affect the tourist industry. A rise of only 0.5 meters could remove nearly all exist ing beaches. Given these severe impacts, protection appears essential. Beach nourishment appears feasible to maintain the tourist-based beaches and minimize flood ing from the Mediterranean. Protection of low-lying areas from inundation will involve actions outside the Governorate, particularly to the east in the Nile delta. Problems of salinization, wa terlogging, and flooding also need to be addressed. From a national perspective, these results sug gest that a one-meter rise in sea level could displace six million people in Egypt, assuming the existing population and a no protection response.