Application of bias adjustment techniques to improve air quality forecasts

Abstract Two bias adjustment techniques, the hybrid forecast (HF) and the Kalman filter (KF), have been applied to investigate their capability to improve the accuracy of predictions supplied by an air quality forecast system (AQFS). The studied AQFS operationally predicts NO 2 , ozone, particulate matter and other pollutants concentrations for the Lazio Region (Central Italy). A thorough evaluation of the AQFS and the two techniques has been performed through calculation and analysis of statistical parameters and skill scores. The evaluation performed considering all Lazio region monitoring sites evidenced better results for KF than for HF. RMSE scores were reduced by 43.8% (33.5% HF), 25.2% (13.2% HF) and 41.6% (39.7% HF) respectively for hourly averaged NO 2 , hourly averaged O 3 and daily averaged PM10 concentrations. A further analysis performed clustering the monitoring stations per type showed a good performance of the AQFS for ozone for all the groups of stations ( r  = 0.7), while satisfactory results were obtained for PM 10 and NO 2 at rural background ( r  = 0.6) and Rome background stations ( r  = 0.7). The skill scores confirmed the capability of the adopted techniques to improve the reproduction of exceedance events.

[1]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Ozone ensemble forecasts: 2. A Kalman filter predictor bias correction , 2006 .

[2]  Mian Chin,et al.  On the contribution of natural Aeolian sources to particulate matter concentrations in Europe: Testing hypotheses with a modelling approach , 2005 .

[3]  Henryk Modzelewski,et al.  Verification of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasts in Mountainous Terrain for Application to Avalanche Prediction , 2003 .

[4]  G. Gobbi,et al.  A gas/aerosol air pollutants study over the urban area of Rome using a comprehensive chemical transport model , 2007 .

[5]  Rohit Mathur,et al.  Bias adjustment techniques for improving ozone air quality forecasts , 2008 .

[6]  G. Righini,et al.  Assessment of the AMS-MINNI system capabilities to simulate air quality over Italy for the calendar year 2005 , 2014 .

[7]  M. Homleid,et al.  Diurnal Corrections of Short-Term Surface Temperature Forecasts Using the Kalman Filter , 1995 .

[8]  J. M. Baldasano,et al.  Air quality forecasts on a kilometer-scale grid over complex Spanish terrains , 2014 .

[9]  R. E. Kalman,et al.  A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems , 2002 .

[10]  W. Cotton,et al.  RAMS 2001: Current status and future directions , 2003 .

[11]  O. Jorba,et al.  Assessment of Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique to improve the simulation of ground-level ozone over Spain. , 2012, The Science of the total environment.

[12]  M. Contaldi,et al.  Technical and Non-Technical Measures for air pollution emission reduction: The integrated assessment of the regional Air Quality Management Plans through the Italian national model , 2009 .

[13]  Rohit Mathur,et al.  Assessment of bias-adjusted PM 2.5 air quality forecasts over the continental United States during 2007 , 2009 .

[14]  C Borrego,et al.  Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment. , 2008, Environment international.

[15]  F. Binkowski,et al.  Models-3 community multiscale air quality (cmaq) model aerosol component , 2003 .

[16]  G. Fossati,et al.  Modelling of PM10 concentrations over Milano urban area using two aerosol modules , 2008, Environ. Model. Softw..

[17]  Anthony S. Wexler,et al.  Size distribution of sea-salt emissions as a function of relative humidity , 2004 .

[18]  Isabel F. Trigo,et al.  Correction of 2 m-temperature forecasts using Kalman Filtering technique , 2008 .

[19]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  A Kalman-filter bias correction method applied to deterministic, ensemble averaged and probabilistic forecasts of surface ozone , 2008 .

[20]  Jaakko Kukkonen,et al.  A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe , 2012 .

[21]  P. Palmer,et al.  Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) , 2006 .

[22]  M. Mircea,et al.  Benzo[a]pyrene modelling over Italy: Comparison with experimental data and source apportionment , 2012 .

[23]  Sara Basart,et al.  How bias-correction can improve air quality forecasts over Portugal , 2011 .

[24]  S. Hanna,et al.  Air quality model performance evaluation , 2004 .