Defining developmental problems for policy intervention or Building reference mode in 20 steps over 5 learning cycles

Developmental problems are invariably perceived as existing conditions, which must be alleviated. This often removes a policy from the factors that created the problem in the first instance. System dynamics method requires that a problem must be viewed as an internal behavioral tendency found in a system so its causes can be determined before a corrective action is initiated. A pattern representing internal dynamics of a system, called a reference mode, must be constructed before developing a model that serves as an apparatus to create a policy design for system change. Such a problem definition process is also appropriate for understanding developmental problems such as food shortage, poverty and insurgence, so their causes rather than only symptoms are addressed by a developmental policy. A reference mode is, however, different from a precise time history in that it represents a pattern incorporating only a slice of the history and it requires several learning cycles to construct a reference mode from time history. A learning process based on a well-known model of experiential learning is used to describe the construction of a reference mode, which is illustrated at length by revisiting the problem of food shortage