Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. This concept is designed to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace by creating dedicated flight corridors across the continent. The methodology is a hybrid collision-risk methodology combining Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic event trees. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft within the corridor and to identify potential trajectories that might lead to a collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the effectiveness of subsequent safety layers that protect against collisions. The overall risk assessment captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. A tradeoff between safety and throughput is conducted, and a sensitivity analysis identifies the most critical parameters in the model.