Network Change, Deregulation, and Access in the Global Airline Industry*

Abstract This research evaluates changes in the centrality of hubs in the international airline industry from 1984 to 1996 and examines the relationship between those changes and uneven patterns of airline industry deregulation. The development prospects of cities and countries with favored positions in international airline networks are enhanced by their superior access to global flows of people, goods, money, and information. But those networks are dynamic. Aircraft technology, the state, and shifts in market demand shape the restructuring of airline networks. The analyses in this article examine whether the relative accessibility of cities in poor developing countries has improved or worsened since the mid-1980s. Using data on international airline schedules, the author estimates indices of centrality for hubs around the world in 1984 and 1996 and contrasts changes in those indices against measures of development. The data indicate that the hubs in the poorest developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, became relatively more isolated during the period, while hubs in rapid-growth developing economies, like those along the western Pacific Rim, gained markedly in their accessibility. The deregulation of the airline industry has tended to reinforce the disparity in access among gateways in global airline networks.