Correlations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States: implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change.

Abstract We applied a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to study the correlations of total PM2.5 and its components with meteorological variables using an 11-year (1998–2008) observational record over the contiguous US. The data were deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale correlations. We find that daily variation in meteorology as described by the MLR can explain up to 50% of PM2.5 variability with temperature, relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and circulation all being important predictors. Temperature is positively correlated with sulfate, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) almost everywhere. The correlation of nitrate with temperature is negative in the Southeast but positive in California and the Great Plains. RH is positively correlated with sulfate and nitrate, but negatively with OC and EC. Precipitation is strongly negatively correlated with all PM2.5 components. We find that PM2.5 concentrations are on average 2.6 μg m−3 higher on stagnant vs. non-stagnant days. Our observed correlations provide a test for chemical transport models used to simulate the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change. They point to the importance of adequately representing the temperature dependence of agricultural, biogenic and wildfire emissions in these models.

[1]  William C. Malm,et al.  Spatial and monthly trends in speciated fine particle concentration in the United States , 2004 .

[2]  J. Angell,et al.  Air stagnation climatology for the United States (1948--1998) , 1999 .

[3]  Daniel J. Jacob,et al.  Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality , 2009 .

[4]  D. Koch,et al.  Clouds and sulfate are anticorrelated: A new diagnostic for global sulfur models , 2003 .

[5]  Jung-Hun Woo,et al.  Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States , 2007 .

[6]  Lester L. Yuan,et al.  Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for the estimation of air quality data , 2004, Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology.

[7]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States: FUTURE INORGANIC AEROSOLS IN THE U.S. , 2009 .

[8]  D. Jacob,et al.  Aqueous-phase reactive uptake of dicarbonyls as a source of organic aerosol over eastern North America , 2009 .

[9]  D. Jacob,et al.  Sensitivity of US Air Quality to Mid-Latitude Cyclone Frequency and Implications of 1980–2006 Climate Change , 2008 .

[10]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  Biogenic secondary organic aerosol over the United States: Comparison of climatological simulations with observations , 2007 .

[11]  D. Rind,et al.  Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States , 2004 .

[12]  S. Chu.  PM2.5 episodes as observed in the speciation trends network , 2004 .

[13]  Niels H. Batjes,et al.  Emissions of N2O and NO from fertilized fields: Summary of available measurement data , 2002 .

[14]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  Relative humidity and temperature dependence of the ammonium nitrate dissociation constant , 1982 .

[15]  M. Kleeman,et al.  Evaluating the first‐order effect of intraannual temperature variability on urban air pollution , 2003 .

[16]  Michael H. Kutner.  Applied Linear Statistical Models , 1974 .

[17]  Roger Jones,et al.  Regional climate projections , 2007 .

[18]  W. Collins,et al.  The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation , 2001 .

[19]  Andrew C. Comrie,et al.  Meteorologically adjusted urban air quality trends in the Southwestern United States , 2005 .

[20]  H. Knudsen,et al.  The use of kriging to estimate monthly ozone exposure parameters for the Southeastern United States. , 1988, Environmental pollution.

[21]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[22]  S. Arya,et al.  Characterizing ammonia emissions from swine farms in eastern North Carolina: Reduction of emissions from water-holding structures at two candidate superior technologies for waste treatment , 2008 .

[23]  Jean-Francois Lamarque,et al.  Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change , 2008 .

[24]  F. Bowman,et al.  Estimated effects of temperature on secondary organic aerosol concentrations. , 2001, Environmental science & technology.

[25]  D. Jacob,et al.  Fire and biofuel contributions to annual mean aerosol mass concentrations in the United States. , 2007 .

[26]  A. Robinson,et al.  Spatial Variations of PM2.5 During the Pittsburgh Air Quality Study , 2004 .

[27]  M. Chin,et al.  Natural and transboundary pollution influences on sulfate‐nitrate‐ammonium aerosols in the United States: Implications for policy , 2004 .

[28]  Kostas Tsigaridis,et al.  Secondary organic aerosol importance in the future atmosphere , 2007 .

[29]  R.K.M. Jayanty,et al.  PM2.5 Speciation Trends Network: Evaluation of Whole-System Uncertainties Using Data from Sites with Collocated Samplers , 2006, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.

[30]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols , 2006 .

[31]  John P. Dawson,et al.  Sensitivity of PM 2.5 to climate in the Eastern US: a modeling case study , 2007 .

[32]  David G. Streets,et al.  Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States , 2008 .

[33]  Roy E. Welsch,et al.  Efficient Computing of Regression Diagnostics , 1981 .

[34]  P. Hess,et al.  How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States , 2006 .

[35]  Christina Gloeckner,et al.  Modern Applied Statistics With S , 2003 .

[36]  M. Kleeman.  A preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of air quality in California to global change , 2008 .

[37]  Hans Moosmüller,et al.  Equivalence of elemental carbon by thermal/optical reflectance and transmittance with different temperature protocols. , 2004, Environmental science & technology.

[38]  Christine Wiedinmyer,et al.  A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations , 2009 .

[39]  D. Salcedo,et al.  A missing sink for gas‐phase glyoxal in Mexico City: Formation of secondary organic aerosol , 2007 .

[40]  J. Burrows,et al.  Satellite measurements of daily variations in soil NOx emissions , 2005 .

[41]  R. Cook.  Influential Observations in Linear Regression , 1979 .

[42]  Peter J. Adams,et al.  Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change , 2006 .

[43]  Comparison of Fine Particles and the Relationship between Particle Variations and Meteorology at an Urban Site and a Remote Site in the Eastern United States , 2002, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.

[44]  B. Lamb,et al.  Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM 2.5 concentrations to global changes , 2009 .

[45]  R. Burnett,et al.  Spatial Analysis of Air Pollution and Mortality in Los Angeles , 2005, Epidemiology.

[46]  Cliff I. Davidson,et al.  A process-based model of ammonia emissions from dairy cows: improved temporal and spatial resolution , 2004 .

[47]  V. Barnett,et al.  Applied Linear Statistical Models , 1975 .

[48]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.