Persistent Engagement, Agreed Competition, Cyberspace Interaction Dynamics and Escalation

Policymakers and academics have raised concerns over escalation should states adopt a more proactive cyberspace posture. The unspoken context for those fears is potential, episodic offensive cyber operations that threaten to or cause physical damage. This narrow focus excludes an equally, if not more important strategic space—actual, continuous strategic competition without resort to armed attack, a space 2018 U.S. strategic guidance argues poses a central challenge to national security. U.S. Cyber Command has described a strategic approach to cyberspace intended to counter and contest adversary gains—persistent engagement. This approach is assessed through a re-consideration of Herman Kahn’s On Escalation. It is concluded that competitive interaction in cyberspace short of armed conflict in an agreed competition, as opposed to spiraling escalation, best explains the dynamic from persistent engagement, and consequently, prevailing concerns of escalation are unwarranted. Agreement to compete robustly short of armed conflict may be the grand strategic consequence of cyberspace. Keywords—escalation, agreed competition, cyberspace, interaction, persistent engagement, strategy