Forecasting with scenarios

Abstract It is often argued that scenario development is different from forecasting, but the analysis presented here reevaluates how it is converging with contemporary forecasting practice. The most common aspects of scenario analysis are discussed, with an emphasis on their support for strategic modelling and in the light of relevant research on human cognition and judgemental forecasting. The paper also offers some practical guidelines and a more integrative perspective on using scenarios to support strategic planning.

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