전문가 의견과 시뮬레이션 기법을 결합한 리스크 우선순위 평가방법 개선

Expert survey is a useful and effective way to determine risk priority. Especially, when data regarding risks are strictly limited, expert opinions have very significant meanings. The aim of this paper is to suggest a rational method for measuring risk priority. The research is composed of the following steps. First, comprehensive literature reviews were performed to identify the need of expert opinions and stochastic approach. Second, 40 expert surveys were conducted to evaluate the Probability(P) and Impact(I) score of each risk factor by using 5 point Likert scale. Third, the results of expert survey and probability distribution were combined to reflect the volatility of risk by using Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS). The probability distribution of each risk factor was assigned using distribution fitting. Then, the simulation was used to calculate the expected value at a reasonable significance level. For validation, the results of existing method and stochastic method were compared. By using the stochastic method, the authors were able to obtain more detailed and realistic results than the existing method.