The evolution of technology generations and associated markets: a double helix model

Studies analyzing the impact of technological innovations on how an industry develops focus on the different effects produced by radical innovations versus incremental innovations. The studies either examine the technology cycles or the market development cycles in isolation without really explaining the interaction between the two. In this paper, we present a model of industry development that takes into account the dynamics of innovation in the industry accentuated by the interplay between technology development cycles and application development cycles. The model proposes that these two cycles go through a linked, predictable double helix pattern. The personal computer (PC) industry is used as an example of this model's operation, as the PC industry has gone through three distinct technology cycles (8-b, 16-b, and 32-b processors) and corresponding three distinct application cycles. We draw some important conclusions about how companies can use this understanding to develop better technology and market strategies to succeed in the various stages of the industry's development.

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