Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, scenario planning is an increasingly popular way to look at future environments because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)-based scenarios is a very new approach. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM-based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate FCM-based raw scenarios. Moreover, a comparison of FCM-based scenario development approach with other prominent quantitative scenario development techniques is also presented in this chapter.

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