The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Ecologically relevant measures of contemporary global climate change can predict species distributions and vulnerabilities. Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

[1]  G. Beaugrand,et al.  Global climate change amplifies the entry of tropical species into the eastern Mediterranean Sea , 2010 .

[2]  F. Boero,et al.  Long-term changes in hydroid (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa) assemblages: effect of Mediterranean warming? , 2009 .

[3]  Henri Weimerskirch,et al.  Interdecadal changes in at‐sea distribution and abundance of subantarctic seabirds along a latitudinal gradient in the Southern Indian Ocean , 2010 .

[4]  N. Mieszkowska,et al.  Long-term changes in the geographic distribution and population structures of Osilinus lineatus (Gastropoda: Trochidae) in Britain and Ireland , 2007, Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom.

[5]  Nathan J B Kraft,et al.  The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography , 2010 .

[6]  D. Manzello.  Coral growth with thermal stress and ocean acidification: lessons from the eastern tropical Pacific , 2010, Coral Reefs.

[7]  Beau B. Gregory,et al.  Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean , 2009 .

[8]  R. Ohlemüller,et al.  Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming , 2011, Science.

[9]  Susan L. Williams,et al.  Marine range shifts and species introductions: comparative spread rates and community impacts , 2010 .

[10]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[11]  E. Murphy,et al.  Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming , 2006 .

[12]  C. Deser,et al.  Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited , 2010 .

[13]  S. Schneider,et al.  Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants , 2003, Nature.

[14]  C. Duarte,et al.  Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem , 2011 .

[15]  Stuart I. Rogers,et al.  Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas , 2008 .

[16]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. , 2000, Science.

[17]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[18]  Robert K. Colwell,et al.  Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics , 2008, Science.

[19]  H. D. Cooper,et al.  Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century , 2010, Science.

[20]  J. Comiso.  Warming trends in the Arctic from clear sky satellite observations , 2003 .

[21]  H. Weimerskirch,et al.  Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[22]  P. C. Reid,et al.  Pulses in the eastern margin current and warmer water off the north west European shelf linked to North Sea ecosystem changes , 2001 .

[23]  C. Parmesan.  Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming , 2007 .

[24]  Jason S. Link,et al.  Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf , 2009 .

[25]  J. Sarmiento,et al.  Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios , 2009 .

[26]  J. Reynolds,et al.  Climate Change and Distribution Shifts in Marine Fishes , 2005, Science.

[27]  David W. J. Thompson,et al.  Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change , 2002, Science.

[28]  Walter Jetz,et al.  Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa , 2010, Nature.

[29]  Paul H. Williams,et al.  Mapping biodiversity value worldwide: combining higher-taxon richness from different groups , 1997, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[30]  G. Yohe,et al.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems , 2003, Nature.

[31]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids , 2005 .

[32]  B. Menge,et al.  MOSAIC PATTERNS OF THERMAL STRESS IN THE ROCKY INTERTIDAL ZONE: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE , 2006 .

[33]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[34]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[35]  N. Mieszkowska,et al.  Changes in the Range of Some Common Rocky Shore Species in Britain – A Response to Climate Change? , 2006, Hydrobiologia.

[36]  J. Berge,et al.  Ocean temperature oscillations enable reappearance of blue mussels Mytilus edulis in Svalbard after a 1000 year absence , 2005 .

[37]  Wilfried Thuiller,et al.  The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change , 2010 .

[38]  C. Field,et al.  The velocity of climate change , 2009, Nature.

[39]  T. Clutton‐Brock,et al.  Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments , 2010 .