ENERGY USE AND CARBON EMISSIONS FROM FREIGHT IN 10 INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES: AN ANALYSIS OF TRENDS FROM 1973 TO 1992

This paper reviews trends in freight activity and energy use in 10 industrialized countries from 1973 to 1992. We review changes in modes used to carry freight and analyze changes in the role of trucks. We carry out a decomposition of changes in freight energy use to identify the relative contribution of activity, modal structure, and energy intensity to the rise in energy use observed in each country. A similar analysis is carried out for carbon emissions, one of the many environmental problems associated with freight. Our three major findings are: (1) domestic freight volumes rose, with trucks carrying most of the increment, in almost every country we studied, (2) freight energy use and associated carbon emissions increased markedly and are rising vis-a-vis those associated with passenger travel in the 10 industrialized countries studied, and (3) energy use for freight will continue to rise unless there are substantial reductions in the energy intensities of truck freight. We conclude that restraining or reducing emissions from freight will be particularly difficult because the factors that increased energy use and emissions for freight in the past are still important to raising energy use for freight. Noting that emissions from most other sectors have either fallen or grown less than freight, we discuss technologies and policies that might lead to restraint in this sector in the future.