Estimate of global oil resource and the forecast for global oil production in the 21st century

Abstract A probabilistic estimate of the global conventional recoverable oil resource was performed based on the concept of the Earth's sedimentary cover as a holistic system. A forecast for global oil production was made for the period till the end of the 21st century. It has been shown that the global oil production will most likely peak at 4.2–4.7 billion tons a year in 2020–2030. For that period, the top oil-producing regions in the world will be the Persian Gulf, West and East Siberia. The upstream sector at that time will turn its focus to the Arctic shelf. Annual oil production could be maintained at a level of 4.2–4.5 billion tons till the late 2040s.