Monte Carlo simulation of rock slope reliability

Abstract One of the most important problems encountered in probabilistic rock slope stability analysis is the correlation that exists among the random variables involved in the design equation. Some existing probabilistic models assume independence between the random variables by ignoring all possible correlations. Other models realize the importance of including the correlations in the mathematical formulation; however, the associated mathematical complications require inclusion of some simplifying assumptions, such as Gaussian distribution of all random variables involved in the design equation. Therefore, it is important to develop techniques to deal with the correlations while maintaining the desired accuracy. This paper is concerned with reliability analysis of rock slopes against single plane sliding under the influence of water. A modified Monte Carlo Simulation is used to determine the reliability of rock slopes including possible correlations between the variables entering into the design equation. These variables do not have to be normally distributed and can have different probability density functions. Finally, a computer program has been developed to perform all the necessary calculations.