Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

Abstract. Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. The approaches to downscaled experiment design and lessons learned from the MEECE project are also discussed.

[1]  B. Salihoglu,et al.  Climatic controls on biophysical interactions in the Black Sea under present day conditions and a potential future (A1B) climate scenario , 2015 .

[2]  C. Deser Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections due to Internal Variability , 2014 .

[3]  Christian Lindemann,et al.  Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean , 2014 .

[4]  T. Pohlmann,et al.  An uncoupled dynamical downscaling for the North Sea: Method and evaluation , 2013 .

[5]  Christoph Heinze,et al.  Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models , 2013 .

[6]  Corinna Schrum,et al.  Simulating long-term dynamics of the coupled North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystem with ECOSMO II: Model description and validation , 2013 .

[7]  M. Mathis Projected Forecast of Hydrodynamic Conditions in the North Sea for the 21st Century , 2013 .

[8]  A. Blumberg,et al.  A Description of a Three‐Dimensional Coastal Ocean Circulation Model , 2013 .

[9]  V. P. Kochergin,et al.  Three‐Dimensional Prognostic Models , 2013 .

[10]  M. Inall,et al.  Variable behavior in pycnocline mixing over shelf seas , 2013 .

[11]  Mike Ashworth,et al.  Next generation ocean dynamical core roadmap project: final report. Report for the NERC Ocean Roadmap exercise , 2013 .

[12]  E. R. Parker,et al.  Modelling marine ecosystem response to climate change and trawling in the North Sea , 2013, Biogeochemistry.

[13]  Andreas Moll,et al.  NW European shelf under climate warming: implications for open ocean – shelf exchange, primary production, and carbon absorption , 2012 .

[14]  J. Beckers,et al.  Interannual variability of Black Sea’s hydrodynamics and connection to atmospheric patterns , 2012 .

[15]  K. Barthel,et al.  Resolving frontal structures: on the payoff using a less diffusive but computationally more expensive advection scheme , 2012, Ocean Dynamics.

[16]  Graham Tattersall,et al.  Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis , 2012 .

[17]  Winter atmospheric circulation signature for the timing of the spring bloom of diatoms in the North Sea , 2012 .

[18]  T. Dąbrowski,et al.  Regional modelling of the 21st century climate changes in the Irish Sea , 2012 .

[19]  Momme Butenschön,et al.  Modeling the carbon fluxes of the northwest European continental shelf: Validation and budgets , 2012 .

[20]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Simulated Climate and Climate Change in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model , 2012 .

[21]  James D. Scott,et al.  Enhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models , 2012 .

[22]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[23]  K. Horsburgh,et al.  The impact of future sea-level rise on the European Shelf tides , 2012 .

[24]  Jason T. Holt,et al.  Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario , 2012 .

[25]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances , 2012 .

[26]  S. Chiswell,et al.  Annual cycles and spring blooms in phytoplankton: don't abandon Sverdrup completely , 2011 .

[27]  Gennady K. Korotaev,et al.  Development of Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system , 2011 .

[28]  H. Storch,et al.  Regional climate models add value to global model data, A Review and Selected Examples , 2011 .

[29]  R. Ingvaldsen,et al.  Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea , 2011 .

[30]  K. Wiltshire,et al.  Factors controlling the onset of spring blooms in the German Bight 2002–2005: Light, wind and stratification , 2011 .

[31]  Morten D. Skogen,et al.  North Sea sensitivity to atmospheric forcing , 2011 .

[32]  Andreas Oschlies,et al.  Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming? , 2011 .

[33]  J. Beckers,et al.  Realistic modelling of the exceptional inflows into the central Baltic Sea in 2003 using terrain-following coordinates , 2011 .

[34]  Errari,et al.  Shutdown of turbulent convection as a new criterion for the onset of spring phytoplankton blooms , 2011 .

[35]  Patrick Lehodey,et al.  On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources , 2011 .

[36]  C. Deser,et al.  Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[37]  J. Lowe,et al.  Interpreting Century-Scale Changes in Southern North Sea Storm Surge Climate Derived from Coupled Model Simulations , 2010 .

[38]  T. R. Anderson,et al.  Control of primary production in the Arctic by nutrients and light: insights from a high resolution ocean general circulation model , 2010 .

[39]  John P. Dunne,et al.  Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model , 2010 .

[40]  Jason Lowe,et al.  The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf , 2010 .

[41]  B. Arheimer,et al.  Development and testing of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) water quality model for different spatial scales , 2010 .

[42]  T. Neumann Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study , 2010 .

[43]  F. Saucier,et al.  Plankton ecosystem response to freshwater-associated bulk turbidity in the subarctic Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada): A modelling study , 2010 .

[44]  Thomas R. Anderson,et al.  Comparison of the emergent behavior of a complex ecosystem model in two ocean general circulation models , 2010 .

[45]  Grégory Beaugrand,et al.  On the processes linking climate to ecosystem changes , 2010 .

[46]  Iris Grossmann,et al.  A review of North Atlantic modes of natural variability and their driving mechanisms , 2009 .

[47]  Jason T. Holt,et al.  Deep ocean exchange with west-European shelf seas , 2009 .

[48]  Trevor Platt,et al.  The phenology of phytoplankton blooms: Ecosystem indicators from remote sensing , 2009 .

[49]  Jason T. Holt,et al.  Are mesoscale eddies in shelf seas formed by baroclinic instability of tidal fronts , 2009 .

[50]  Scott C. Doney,et al.  Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis , 2009 .

[51]  F. Mélin,et al.  Temporal variability of 10-year global SeaWiFS time-series of phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentration , 2009 .

[52]  E. Hawkins,et al.  The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions , 2009 .

[53]  Jason T. Holt,et al.  Down‐welling circulation of the northwest European continental shelf: A driving mechanism for the continental shelf carbon pump , 2009 .

[54]  J. Wolf,et al.  UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections , 2009 .

[55]  U. Sommer,et al.  Changes in biogenic carbon flow in response to sea surface warming , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[56]  K. Haines,et al.  Evaluation of the S(T) assimilation method with the Argo dataset , 2009 .

[57]  Wolfgang Ludwig,et al.  River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black Sea: Major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades? , 2009 .

[58]  Jason T. Holt,et al.  The influence of initial conditions and open boundary conditions on shelf circulation in a 3D ocean-shelf model of the North East Atlantic , 2009 .

[59]  A. McQuatters‐Gollop,et al.  Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll , 2008 .

[60]  A. Demidov Seasonal dynamics and estimation of the annual primary production of phytoplankton in the Black Sea , 2008 .

[61]  J. Vermaat,et al.  Past, present and future nutrient loads of the North Sea: Causes and consequences , 2008 .

[62]  R. Molinari,et al.  Differences between observed and a coupled simulation of North Atlantic sea surface currents and temperature , 2008 .

[63]  C. Humborg,et al.  Nutrient budgets for European seas: a measure of the effectiveness of nutrient reduction policies. , 2008, Marine pollution bulletin.

[64]  J. Holt,et al.  The seasonal circulation and volume transport on the northwest European continental shelf: A fine‐resolution model study , 2008 .

[65]  B. Ådlandsvik Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario for the North Sea , 2008 .

[66]  K. Myrberg,et al.  Upwelling in the Baltic Sea — A review , 2008 .

[67]  J. Sharples Potential impacts of the spring-neap tidal cycle on shelf sea primary production. , 2007 .

[68]  Muyin Wang,et al.  Future regional Arctic sea ice declines , 2007 .

[69]  Robert J. Moore,et al.  Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output , 2007 .

[70]  B. Soden,et al.  Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming , 2006 .

[71]  J. Sellschopp,et al.  Ventilation of the Baltic Sea deep water: A brief review of present knowledge from observations and models , 2006 .

[72]  H. Meier Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical downscaling approach using two global models and two emission scenarios , 2006 .

[73]  A. Omstedt,et al.  The Baltic Sea ocean climate system memory and response to changes in the water and heat balance components , 2006 .

[74]  N. Nezlin Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Remotely Sensed Chlorophyll , 2006 .

[75]  J. Pinnegar,et al.  Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems , 2006 .

[76]  I. Harms,et al.  Modelling air-sea exchange in the Barents Sea by using a coupled regional ice-ocean model. Evaluation of modelling strategies , 2005 .

[77]  T. Rippeth Mixing in seasonally stratified shelf seas: a shifting paradigm , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[78]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[79]  T. Oguz Hydraulic adjustments of the Bosphorus exchange flow , 2005 .

[80]  W. Dullo,et al.  Atmosphere–ocean dynamics in the Western Indian Ocean recorded in corals , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[81]  J. Rodhe THE BALTIC AND NORTH SEAS : A REGIONAL REVIEW OF SOME IMPORTANT PHYSICAL-CHEMICAL-BIOLOGICAL INTERACTION PROCESSES ( 20 , S ) , 2005 .

[82]  Daniele Iudicone,et al.  Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology , 2004 .

[83]  Jerry Blackford,et al.  Ecosystem dynamics at six contrasting sites: a generic modelling study , 2004 .

[84]  A. Lehmann,et al.  Knowledge of the Baltic Sea physics gained during the BALTEX and related programmes , 2004 .

[85]  Scott C. Doney,et al.  Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming , 2004 .

[86]  T. Neumann,et al.  Inter-annual variability in cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea controlled by wintertime hydrographic conditions , 2004 .

[87]  Naomi P. Holliday,et al.  External and internal control of winter concentrations of nutrients (N, P and Si) in north-west European shelf seas , 2004 .

[88]  V. Ivanov,et al.  Cascades of dense water around the world ocean [review article] , 2004 .

[89]  J. Holt,et al.  The Role of Advection in Determining the Temperature Structure of the Irish Sea , 2003 .

[90]  R. Podzun,et al.  A coupled atmosphere/ice/ocean model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea , 2003 .

[91]  R. Garvine,et al.  Large scale buoyancy driven circulation on the continental shelf , 2002 .

[92]  I. Joint,et al.  New production of the NW Iberian shelf during the upwelling season over the period 1982–1999 , 2002 .

[93]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Wind Stress Forcing of the Ocean in the SOC Climatology: Comparisons with the NCEP–NCAR, ECMWF, UWM/COADS, and Hellerman and Rosenstein Datasets , 2002 .

[94]  Teresa L. Rosa,et al.  Fronts, jets, and counter-flows in the Western Iberian upwelling system , 2002 .

[95]  W. Krauss,et al.  Effects of remote and local atmospheric forcing on circulation and upwelling in the Baltic Sea , 2002 .

[96]  A. Kostianoy,et al.  Remotely sensed studies of phytoplankton dynamics under physical forcing in different ocean regions , 2002 .

[97]  G. Schernewski,et al.  Perspectives on Eutrophication Abatement in the Baltic Sea , 2002 .

[98]  Mike Ashworth,et al.  A highly spatially resolved ecosystem model for the North West European Continental Shelf , 2001 .

[99]  Daniel Pauly,et al.  Systematic distortions in world fisheries catch trends , 2001, Nature.

[100]  P. L. Traon,et al.  Water transport in the Bosphorus Straits estimated from hydro-meteorological and altimeter data: seasonal to decadal variability , 2001 .

[101]  J. Holt,et al.  An s coordinate density evolving model of the northwest European continental shelf: 1. Model description and density structure , 2001 .

[102]  Temel Oguz,et al.  Modeling the response of top‐down control exerted by gelatinous carnivores on the Black Sea pelagic food web , 2001 .

[103]  Alejandro J. Souza,et al.  Flow structure and seasonalityin the Hebridean slope current , 2001 .

[104]  H. Storch,et al.  Statistics of ''Synoptic Circulation Weather'' in the North Sea as Derived from a Multiannual OGCM Simulation , 2000 .

[105]  D. Chapman Boundary Layer Control of Buoyant Coastal Currents and the Establishment of a Shelfbreak Front , 2000 .

[106]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios : a special report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2000 .

[107]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments , 2000 .

[108]  V. Pope,et al.  The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3 , 2000 .

[109]  Franz J. Weissing,et al.  Critical depth and critical turbulence: Two different mechanisms for the development of phytoplankton blooms , 1999 .

[110]  J. Backhaus,et al.  Sensitivity of atmosphere-ocean heat exchange and heat content in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea , 1999 .

[111]  L. Fernand,et al.  Observations of a Seasonal Jet-like Circulation at the Central North Sea Cold Pool Margin , 1999 .

[112]  W. Matthäus,et al.  On the causes of major Baltic inflows —an analysis of long time series , 1998 .

[113]  A. Robinson,et al.  The global coastal ocean : processes and methods , 1998 .

[114]  B. Gustafsson Interaction between Baltic Sea and North Sea , 1997 .

[115]  J. Kok Baroclinic eddy formation in a Rhine plume model , 1997 .

[116]  C. Schrum Thermohaline stratification and instabilities at tidal mixing fronts: results of an eddy resolving model for the German Bight , 1997 .

[117]  Temel Oguz,et al.  Simulation of annual plankton productivity cycle in the Black Sea by a one‐dimensional physical‐biological model , 1996 .

[118]  John M. Huthnance,et al.  Circulation, exchange and water masses at the ocean margin: the role of physical processes at the shelf edge , 1995 .

[119]  D. Chapman,et al.  Trapping of a Coastal Density Front by the Bottom Boundary Layer , 1994 .

[120]  Temel Oguz,et al.  The upper layer circulation of the Black Sea: Its variability as inferred from hydrographic and satellite observations , 1992 .

[121]  L. Mee The Black Sea in crisis: a need for concerted international action , 1992 .

[122]  E. Özsoy,et al.  Hydrographic properties and ventilation of the Black Sea , 1991 .

[123]  Temel Oguz,et al.  On the Physical Oceanography of the Turkish Straits , 1990 .

[124]  Jan O. Backhaus,et al.  A three-dimensional model for the simulation of shelf sea dynamics , 1985 .

[125]  J. Huthnance Slope Currents and “JEBAR” , 1984 .

[126]  P. Baines On internal tide generation models , 1982 .

[127]  John H. Simpson,et al.  Models of stratification and frontal movement in shelf seas , 1981 .