Development of Vehicle Arrival Time Prediction Algorithm Based on a Demand Volume

The information on travel time in providing the information of traffic to drivers is one of the most important data to control a traffic congestion efficiently. Especially, this information is the major element of route choice of drivers, and based on the premise that it has the high degree of confidence in real situation. This study developed a vehicle arrival time prediction algorithm called as "VAT-DV" for 6 corridors in total 6.1Km of "Nam-san area trffic information system" in order to give an information of congestion to drivers using VMS, ARS, and WEB. The spatial scope of this study is 2.5km~3km sections of each corridor, but there are various situations of traffic flow in a short period because they have signalized intersections in a departure point and an arrival point of each corridor, so they have almost characteristics of interrupted and uninterrupted traffic flow. The algorithm uses the information on a demand volume and a queue length. The demand volume is estimated from density of each points based on the Greenburg model, and the queue length is from the density and speed of each point. In order to settle the variation of the unit time, the result of this algorithm is strategically regulated by importing the AVI(Automatic Vehicle Identification), one of the number plate matching methods. In this study, the AVI travel time information is composed by Hybrid Model in order to use it as the basic parameter to make one travel time in a day using ILD to classify the characteristics of the traffic flow along the queue length. According to the result of this study, in congestion situation, this algorithm has about more than 84% degree of accuracy. Specially, the result of providing the information of "Nam-san area traffic information system" shows that 72.6% of drivers are available.