A Weibull Regression Model with Gamma Frailties for Multivariate Survival Data

Frequently in the analysis of survival data, survival times within the same group are correlated due to unobserved co-variates. One way these co-variates can be included in the model is as frailties. These frailty random block effects generate dependency between the survival times of the individuals which are conditionally independent given the frailty. Using a conditional proportional hazards model, in conjunction with the frailty, a whole new family of models is introduced. By considering a gamma frailty model, often the issue is to find an appropriate model for the baseline hazard function. In this paper a flexible baseline hazard model based on a correlated prior process is proposed and is compared with a standard Weibull model. Several model diagnostics methods are developed and model comparison is made using recently developed Bayesian model selection criteria. The above methodologies are applied to the McGilchrist and Aisbett (1991) kidney infection data and the analysis is performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

[1]  P. Green Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination , 1995 .

[2]  D. Oakes A Model for Association in Bivariate Survival Data , 1982 .

[3]  D. Dey,et al.  Semiparametric Bayesian analysis of survival data , 1997 .

[4]  W. Wong,et al.  The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentation , 1987 .

[5]  G. A. Whitmore,et al.  A multivariate survival distribution generated by an inverse Gaussian mixture of exponentials , 1991 .

[6]  Alan E. Gelfand,et al.  Model choice: A minimum posterior predictive loss approach , 1998, AISTATS.

[7]  D. Clayton A model for association in bivariate life tables and its application in epidemiological studies of familial tendency in chronic disease incidence , 1978 .

[8]  McGilchrist Ca,et al.  Regression with frailty in survival analysis. , 1991 .

[9]  John Geweke,et al.  Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments , 1991 .

[10]  W. Gilks,et al.  Adaptive Rejection Sampling for Gibbs Sampling , 1992 .

[11]  D. Clayton,et al.  Multivariate generalizations of the proportional hazards model , 1985 .

[12]  Walter R. Gilks,et al.  Hypothesis testing and model selection , 1995 .

[13]  A. Gelfand,et al.  Bayesian Model Choice: Asymptotics and Exact Calculations , 1994 .

[14]  Adrian F. M. Smith,et al.  Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities , 1990 .

[15]  Hong Chang,et al.  Model Determination Using Predictive Distributions with Implementation via Sampling-Based Methods , 1992 .

[16]  J. Kalbfleisch,et al.  Marginal likelihoods based on Cox's regression and life model , 1973 .

[17]  Tom Leonard Density Estimation, Stochastic Processes and Prior Information , 1978 .

[18]  Irene A. Stegun,et al.  Handbook of Mathematical Functions. , 1966 .

[19]  Sylvia Richardson,et al.  Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice , 1997 .

[20]  D. Cox,et al.  Analysis of Survival Data. , 1985 .

[21]  P. Hougaard A class of multivanate failure time distributions , 1986 .

[22]  D. Gamerman Dynamic Bayesian Models for Survival Data , 1991 .

[23]  A. Raftery,et al.  How Many Iterations in the Gibbs Sampler , 1991 .

[24]  Sujit K. Ghosh Modeling and analysis of multiple-event survival data , 1996 .

[25]  N. Breslow Covariance analysis of censored survival data. , 1974, Biometrics.