Risk Analysis of Water Demand for Agricultural Crops under Climate Change

AbstractThis paper assesses the risk of increase in water demand for a wide range of irrigated crops in an irrigation network located downstream of the Aidoghmoush Dam in East Azerbaijan by considering climate change conditions for the period 2026–2039. Atmosphere-ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) are used to simulate climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. The Bayesian approach is used to consider uncertainties of AOGCMs. Climate change scenarios of climatic variables are first weighted by using the mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method, and related probability distribution functions are produced. Outputs of AOGCMs are used as input to water requirement models. Then, produced by using the Monte Carlo method, 200 samples (discrete values) from the probability distribution functions of monthly downscaled temperature and precipitation in the study area are extracted by using a software for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Time series of climatic variables in fut...

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