Evaluation of uncertainty in gravity wave potential energy calculations through GPS radio occultation measurements

Abstract The application of the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) method to the atmosphere enables the determination of height profiles of temperature, among other variables. From these measurements, gravity wave activity is usually quantified by calculating the potential energy through the integration of the ratio of perturbation and background temperatures between two given altitudes in each profile. The uncertainty in the estimation of wave activity depends on the systematic biases and random errors of the measured temperature, but also on additional factors like the selected vertical integration layer and the separation method between background and perturbation temperatures. In this study, the contributions of different parameters and variables to the uncertainty in the calculation of gravity wave potential energy in the lower stratosphere are investigated and quantified. In particular, a Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate the uncertainty that results from different GPS RO temperature error distributions. In addition, our analysis shows that RO data above 30 km height becomes dubious for gravity waves potential energy calculations.