Assessing the impact of El Niño Modoki on seasonal precipitation in Colombia

Abstract The influence of the tropical Pacific SST on precipitation in Colombia is examined using a 341 station dataset covering the period 1979–2009. Through a singular value decomposition the two main coupled variability modes show SST patterns clearly associated with canonical El Nino and El Nino Modoki, respectively, presenting great coupling strength with the corresponding seasonal precipitation modes in Colombia. The results reveal that, mainly in winter and summer, canonical El Nino and El Nino Modoki events are associated with a significant rainfall decrease over the northern, central, and western Colombia. The opposite effect occurs in some localities during spring, summer, and autumn. The southwestern region of Colombia exhibits an opposite behavior connected to canonical El Nino and El Nino Modoki events during years when both events do not coexist, showing different seasonal precipitation response to these different patterns. The results found establish the foundations for precipitation modeling in Colombia from the Pacific SST.

[1]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[2]  R. Voß,et al.  Ensip: the El Nin Ä O Simulation Intercomparison Project , 2000 .

[3]  Robert F. Cahalan,et al.  Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions , 1982 .

[4]  J. Wallace,et al.  On the structure and evolution of ENSO‐related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA , 1998 .

[5]  W. Cai,et al.  La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability , 2009 .

[6]  Benjamin Kirtman,et al.  Decadal Variability in ENSO Predictability and Prediction , 1998 .

[7]  A. Montecinos,et al.  Seasonal Diagnostic and Predictability of Rainfall in Subtropical South America Based on Tropical Pacific SST , 2000 .

[8]  C. A. Coelho,et al.  Exploring the impacts of the tropical Pacific SST on the precipitation patterns over South America during ENSO periods , 2002 .

[9]  Gen Li,et al.  Indices of El Niño and El Niño Modoki: An improved El Niño Modoki index , 2010 .

[10]  Atmospheric and surface variations during westerly wind bursts in the tropical western pacific , 2007 .

[11]  Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira,et al.  Interannual relations between South American rainfall and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies before and after 1976 , 2009 .

[12]  M. England,et al.  Effect of anomalous warming in the central Pacific on the Australian monsoon , 2009 .

[13]  Vadlamudi Brahmananda Rao,et al.  Tropical circulations and the associated rainfall anomalies during two contrasting years , 1988 .

[14]  Shuanglin Li,et al.  Formation of the anomalous summer precipitation in east China in 2010 and 1998: A comparison of the impacts of two kinds of El Niño , 2012, Acta Meteorologica Sinica.

[15]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  Shifts in the Statistics of Daily Rainfall in South America Conditional on ENSO Phase , 2008 .

[16]  Sensitivity of South American summer rainfall to tropical Pacific Ocean SST anomalies , 2011 .

[17]  Paulin Coulibaly,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian seasonal precipitation (1900–2000) , 2006 .

[18]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño , 1982 .

[19]  C. Nobre,et al.  On the influences of the El Niño, La niña and Atlantic Dipole Paterni on the Amazonian Rainfall during 1960-1998 , 2000 .

[20]  J. Edgar,et al.  LA VARIABILIDAD CLIMATICA INTERANUAL ASOCIADA AL CICLO EL NIÑO-LA NIÑA- OSCILACION DEL SUR Y SU EFECTO EN EL PATRON PLUVIOMETRICO DE COLOMBIA , 2000 .

[21]  K. Lau,et al.  Principal modes of interannual and decadal variability of summer rainfall over South America , 2001 .

[22]  P. Aceituno.  On the Functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American Sector. Part II. Upper-Air Circulation. , 1989 .

[23]  A. Grimm,et al.  Influence of Central and East ENSO on extreme events of precipitation in South America during austral spring and summer , 2015 .

[24]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies , 2005 .

[25]  Mojib Latif,et al.  A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO , 1998 .

[26]  J. David Neelin,et al.  Variations in ENSO Phase Locking , 2000 .

[27]  V. Barros,et al.  Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate White Paper prepared for the CLIVAR Workshop on Atlantic Predictability Reading , UK , 19-23 April 2004 , 2004 .

[28]  Y. Masumoto,et al.  Anomalous climatic conditions associated with the El Niño Modoki during boreal winter of 2009 , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[29]  Oscar J. Mesa,et al.  The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the Tropical Andes of Colombia , 2005 .

[30]  C. Mechoso,et al.  El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impact on Rainfall in Uruguay , 1994 .

[31]  R. Seager,et al.  The ENSO Teleconnection to the Tropical Atlantic Ocean: Contributions of the Remote and Local SSTs to Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Americas* , 2001 .

[32]  J. Chan,et al.  Physical Mechanisms Responsible for the Transition from a Warm to a Cold State of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation , 2000 .

[33]  Oscar J. Mesa,et al.  Nonlinear forecasting of river flows in Colombia based upon ENSO and its associated economic value for hydropower generation. , 2003 .

[34]  Timothy J. Hoar,et al.  The 1990–1995 El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record , 1996 .

[35]  Anny Cazenave,et al.  Interannual variability in water storage over 2003–2008 in the Amazon Basin from GRACE space gravimetry, in situ river level and precipitation data , 2010 .

[36]  A. Grimm,et al.  ENSO and Extreme Rainfall Events in South America , 2009 .

[37]  M. Cane,et al.  Interannual Variability of Caribbean Rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean* , 2000 .

[38]  S. Yeh,et al.  Decadal amplitude modulation of two types of ENSO and its relationship with the mean state , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[39]  Jin‐Yi Yu,et al.  Decadal changes of ENSO persistence barrier in SST and ocean heat content indices: 1958–2001 , 2007 .

[40]  Henry F. Diaz,et al.  Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation , 1989 .

[41]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Indices of El Niño Evolution , 2001 .

[42]  K. Lau,et al.  Coherent modes of global SST and summer rainfall over China: an assessment of the regional impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño , 2001 .

[43]  W. White,et al.  A global El Niño‐Southern Oscillation wave in surface temperature and pressure and its interdecadal modulation from 1900 to 1997 , 2000 .

[44]  S. Mason,et al.  Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies , 2002 .

[45]  Jeremy S. Pal,et al.  Connection between Spring Conditions and Peak Summer Monsoon Rainfall in South America: Role of Soil Moisture, Surface Temperature, and Topography in Eastern Brazil , 2007 .

[46]  Tong Lee,et al.  Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central‐equatorial Pacific , 2010 .

[47]  A. Grimm,et al.  Teleconnections into South America from the Tropics and Extratropics on Interannual and Intraseasonal Timescales , 2009 .

[48]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 1987 .

[49]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures , 2002 .

[50]  J. Bjerknes.  ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC1 , 1969 .

[51]  E. Forootan,et al.  The influence of low frequency sea surface temperature modes on delineated decadal rainfall zones in Eastern Africa region , 2013 .

[52]  H. Hendon,et al.  Sensitivity of Australian Rainfall to Inter-El Niño Variations , 2007 .

[53]  H. Hsu,et al.  Interannual mode of sea level in the South China Sea and the roles of El Niño and El Niño Modoki , 2008 .

[54]  South American rainfall impacts associated with inter‐El Niño variations , 2009 .

[55]  R. Andreoli,et al.  ENSO‐related rainfall anomalies in South America and associated circulation features during warm and cold Pacific decadal oscillation regimes , 2005 .

[56]  Bruce A. McCarl,et al.  The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture , 1998 .

[57]  Josyane Ronchail,et al.  ENSO and rainfall along the Zongo valley (Bolivia) from the Altiplano to the Amazon basin , 2006 .

[58]  R. Andreoli,et al.  Relations between ENSO and the South Atlantic SST modes and their effects on the South American rainfall , 2013 .

[59]  A. Grimm,et al.  Influences of two types of ENSO on South American precipitation , 2013 .

[60]  Germán Poveda,et al.  On the existence of Lloró (the rainiest locality on Earth): Enhanced ocean‐land‐atmosphere interaction by a low‐level jet , 2000 .

[61]  H. Kao.  Eastern Pacific and central Pacific types of ENSO , 2009 .

[62]  M. England,et al.  El Niño Modoki Impacts on Australian Rainfall , 2009 .

[63]  M. Solari,et al.  The 1877–1878 El Niño episode: associated impacts in South America , 2009 .

[64]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Niño Modoki and El Niño events , 2009 .

[65]  Germán Poveda,et al.  Feedbacks between Hydrological Processes in Tropical South America and Large-Scale Ocean–Atmospheric Phenomena , 1997 .

[66]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection , 2007 .

[67]  V. Simoncini,et al.  A Guide to Empirical Orthogonal Functions for Climate Data Analysis , 2010 .

[68]  J. Gomes,et al.  Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events , 1998 .

[69]  C. F. Ropelewski,et al.  Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation , 1989 .

[70]  V. Barros,et al.  Climate Variability in Southern South America Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events. , 2000 .

[71]  Gérard Cochonneau,et al.  Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea‐surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans , 2002 .

[72]  A. Robertson,et al.  Seasonal Dependence of ENSO Teleconnections over South America and Relationships with Precipitation in Uruguay , 2003 .

[73]  Oscar J. Mesa,et al.  INFLUENCIA DE FENÓMENOS MACROCLIMÁTICOS SOBRE EL CICLO ANUAL DE LA HIDROLOGÍA COLOMBIANA: CUANTIFICACIÓN LINEAL, NO LINEAL Y PERCENTILES PROBABILÍSTICOS , 2002 .

[74]  Paulo Nobre,et al.  Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change in a Coupled Model Simulation , 2009 .

[75]  J. Shukla,et al.  Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models , 2008 .

[76]  F. Jin,et al.  Two Types of El Nio Events: Cold Tongue El Nio and Warm Pool El Nio , 2009 .

[77]  Dake Chen,et al.  El Niño prediction and predictability , 2008, J. Comput. Phys..

[78]  Peter R. Waylen,et al.  El Niño and annual floods on the north Peruvian littoral , 1986 .

[79]  ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño , 2011 .

[80]  P. Aceituno,et al.  On the Functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American Sector. Part I: Surface Climate , 1988 .

[81]  A. Grimm.  The El Nino Impact on the Summer Monsoon in Brazil: Regional Processes versus Remote Influences , 2003 .

[82]  Xiaolan L. Wang.  Penalized Maximal F Test for Detecting Undocumented Mean Shift without Trend Change , 2008 .

[83]  J. Marengo,et al.  Interannual variability of surface climate in the Amazon basin , 1992 .

[84]  V. B. Rao,et al.  Characteristics of rainfall over Brazil: Annual variations and connections with the Southern Oscillation , 1990 .

[85]  C. Tam,et al.  ENSO Modoki impact on the Southern Hemisphere storm track activity during extended austral winter , 2009 .

[86]  Evolving anomalous SST patterns leading to ENSO extremes: relations between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the influence on the South American rainfall , 2011 .

[87]  Toshio Yamagata,et al.  Anomalous summer climate in China influenced by the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans , 2011 .

[88]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  The Definition of El Niño. , 1997 .

[89]  A. Grimm.  How do La Niña events disturb the summer monsoon system in Brazil? , 2004 .

[90]  H. Byun,et al.  Effects of El Niño Modoki on winter precipitation in Korea , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[91]  T. Delcroix,et al.  Assimilation of sea surface salinity in a tropical Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM): A twin experiment approach , 2002 .

[92]  R. Andreoli,et al.  Relationships between rainfall anomalies over northeastern Brazil and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation , 2006 .

[93]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer , 2007 .

[94]  Judith A. Curry,et al.  Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones , 2009, Science.

[95]  V. Misra.  The Amplification of the ENSO Forcing over Equatorial Amazon , 2009 .

[96]  G. Poveda,et al.  Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth’s most important biodiversity hotspots , 2011 .

[97]  John A. Dracup,et al.  An analysis of the feasibility of long-range streamflow forecasting for Colombia using El Niño Southern Oscillation indicators , 2001 .

[98]  Yuehua Wu,et al.  Penalized Maximal t Test for Detecting Undocumented Mean Change in Climate Data Series , 2007 .

[99]  T. Piechota,et al.  The relationships between Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures and Colombian streamflow variability , 2008 .