Delay and disruption in complex projects

There are many examples of complex projects suffering massive time and cost overruns. If a project has suffered such an overrun there may be a need to understand why it behaved the way it did. Two main reasons for this is (i) to gain learning for future projects or (ii) because one party of the project wishes to claim compensation from another party and thus is trying to explain what occurred during the project. In the latter case, system dynamics has been used for the last 30 years to help to understand why projects behave the way they do. Its success in this arena stems from its ability to model and unravel complex dynamic behavior that can result in project overruns. Starting from the first use of system dynamics in a claim situation in the late 1970's [2], it has directly influenced claim results worth millions of dollars. However, the number of claims which system dynamics has been involved in is still small as it is not perceived by project management practitioners as a standard tool for analyzing projects. System dynamics has a lot to offer in understanding complex projects, not only in a post‐mortem situation, but it could also add value in the pre‐project analysis stage and during the operational stage of a project.

[1]  Fredrik Tell,et al.  Managing Product Development Projects: On the Significance of Fountains and Deadlines , 1998 .

[2]  Johann Packendorff,et al.  INQUIRING INTO THE TEMPORARY ORGANIZATION: NEW DIRECTIONS FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT RESEARCH , 1995 .

[3]  Colin Eden,et al.  Contrasting Single User and Networked Group Decision Support Systems for Strategy Making , 2001 .

[4]  David Baccarini,et al.  The concept of project complexity—a review , 1996 .

[5]  B. Flyvbjerg,et al.  Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition , 2003 .

[6]  Michael Pidd,et al.  Tools for Thinking—Modelling in Management Science , 1997 .

[7]  Lauri Koskela,et al.  THE THEORY OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT: EXPLANATION TO NOVEL METHODS , 2002 .

[8]  Kenneth Cooper.  Naval Ship Production: A Claim Settled and a Framework Built , 1980 .

[9]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  The role of feedback dynamics in disruption and delay on the nature of disruption and delay (D&D) in major projects , 2000, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[10]  J. R. Turner,et al.  Goals-and-methods matrix: coping with projects with ill defined goals and/or methods of achieving them , 1993 .

[11]  A G Rodrigues,et al.  System dynamics in software project management: towards the development of a formal integrated framework , 1997 .

[12]  James R. Burns.  Converting Signed Digraphs to Forrester Schematics and Converting Forrester Schematics to Differential Equations , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[13]  Rolf A. Lundin,et al.  Editorial : Temporary Organizations and Project Management , 1995 .

[14]  John Bowers,et al.  The role of system dynamics in project management , 1996 .

[15]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Analysing project cost overruns: comparing the “measured mile” analysis and system dynamics modelling , 2005 .

[16]  Alan K. Graham,et al.  System dynamics modeling in the legal arena: meeting the challenges of expert witness admissibility , 2005 .

[17]  C. Eden,et al.  The Amoebic Growth of Project Costs , 2005 .

[18]  Susan Howick,et al.  Using system dynamics models with litigation audiences , 2003, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[19]  D. Hodgson.  Project Work: The Legacy of Bureaucratic Control in the Post-Bureaucratic Organization , 2004 .

[20]  David N. Ford,et al.  Expert knowledge elicitation to improve formal and mental models , 1998 .

[21]  Terry Williams,et al.  The Need for New Paradigms for Complex Projects , 1999 .

[22]  Terry Williams.  Identifying the hard lessons from projects – easily , 2004 .

[23]  Terry Williams,et al.  Assessing Extension of Time delays on major projects , 2003 .

[24]  Russell L. Ackoff,et al.  Fundamentals of operations research , 1968 .

[25]  Rogelio Oliva,et al.  Model structure analysis through graph theory: partition heuristics and feedback structure decomposition , 2004 .

[26]  Jonathan Rosenhead,et al.  Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited , 2001 .

[27]  Simon Peck,et al.  Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics , 1996, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[28]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Linking event thinking with structural thinking: Methods to improve client value in projects , 2006 .

[29]  Terry Williams,et al.  Understanding Project Failure: Using Cognitive Mapping in an Insurance Project , 2006 .

[30]  J. Bryson,et al.  Visible Thinking: Unlocking Causal Mapping for Practical Business Results , 2004 .

[31]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Learning from project failure , 2004 .

[32]  David N. Ford,et al.  System Dynamics Applied to Project Management: A Survey, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research , 2007, System Dynamics.

[33]  Peter W. G. Morris,et al.  The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management , 1988 .

[34]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Cognitive mapping expert views for policy analysis in the public sector , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[35]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[36]  Susan Howick,et al.  Using system dynamics to analyse disruption and delay in complex projects for litigation: can the modelling purposes be met? , 2003, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[37]  Andrew R. Goetz,et al.  Getting realistic about megaproject planning: The case of the new Denver International Airport , 1995 .

[38]  David C. Lane,et al.  Diagramming conventions in system dynamics , 2000, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[39]  Søren L. Buhl,et al.  Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie? , 2002, 1303.6604.

[40]  C. Eden,et al.  Using Causal Mapping with Group Support Systems to Elicit an Understanding of Failure in Complex Projects: Some Implications for Organizational Research , 2005 .

[41]  J. Sterman,et al.  Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making , 1995 .

[42]  John Bowers,et al.  System dynamics in project management: a comparative analysis with traditional methods , 1996 .

[43]  S. Scott.  Dealing with delay claims: a survey , 1993 .

[44]  Dean Tjosvold,et al.  Book review : Group model building : facilitating team learning using system dynamics , 1998 .

[45]  Terry Williams,et al.  Modelling Complex Projects , 2001 .

[46]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Approaches to sharing knowledge in group problem structuring , 2003, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[47]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Modeling for Litigation: Mixing Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches , 1997 .

[48]  Terry Williams,et al.  Assessing and moving on from the dominant project management discourse in the light of project overruns , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.

[49]  Terry Williams.  Post-Project Reviews to Gain Effective Lessons Learned , 2007 .

[50]  Onur Ulgen,et al.  A sector approach to the: formulation of system dynamics models , 1978 .

[51]  D. Sterman,et al.  Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment , 1989 .

[52]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Systemic risk assessment: a case study , 2007, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[53]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Vicious circles of parallelism , 1995 .

[54]  James M. Lyneis,et al.  Strategic management of complex projects: a case study using system dynamics , 2001 .

[55]  Aaron J. Shenhar,et al.  One Size Does Not Fit All Projects: Exploring Classical Contingency Domains , 2001, Manag. Sci..

[56]  Michael T. Pich,et al.  Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos , 2002, IEEE Engineering Management Review.

[57]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  The Effects of Design Changes and Delays on Project Costs , 1995 .

[58]  J. B. Dent,et al.  Principles of Model-Building , 1979 .

[59]  Susan Howick,et al.  The impact of disruption and delay when compressing large projects: going for incentives? , 2001, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[60]  Gregory Howell,et al.  The Underlying Theory of Project Management Is Obsolete , 2008, IEEE Engineering Management Review.

[61]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Building confidence in models for multiple audiences: The modelling cascade , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[62]  Onur M. Ülgen,et al.  An Algorithm for Converting Signed Digrapls to Forrester Schematics , 1979, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[63]  John Wilson.  The Practice of Operational Research , 1993 .

[64]  Steven Nahmias,et al.  The Use of Management Science to Support a Multimillion Dollar Precedent-Setting Government Contract Litigation , 1980 .