Public Information, Private Information, and the Multiplicity of Equilibria in Coordination Games

I study an example of a coordination game, and examine the robustness of equilibrium predictions with respect to changes in the information structure. I find two main results: First, the critique of Morris and Shin (1998) is not robust in the sense that if perfect common knowledge is viewed as the limit of imperfect information structures, multiple equilibria are maintained, as long as there exist some valuable public information. I also find that in general, the possibility of coordination is more likely to arise when the overall level of noise is low and when the public information is relatively informative. These results can be related to the structure of higher-order uncertainty: With a public signal., higher-order uncertainty vanishes, as the noise in the signals disappears.

[1]  S. Morris,et al.  Social Value of Public Information , 2002 .

[2]  Philip H. Dybvig,et al.  Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity , 1983, Journal of Political Economy.

[3]  K. Judd The law of large numbers with a continuum of IID random variables , 1985 .

[4]  S. Morris,et al.  Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt , 2002 .

[5]  S. Morris,et al.  The Robustness of Equilibria to Incomplete Information , 1997 .

[6]  X. Vives,et al.  Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right after All? , 2002 .

[7]  S. Morris,et al.  PAYOFF CONTINUITY IN INCOMPLETE INFORMATION GAMES , 1998 .

[8]  Lars Peter Hansen,et al.  Advances in economics and econometrics: the eighth world congress , 2003 .

[9]  A. Rubinstein The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior Under "Almost Common Knowledge" , 1989 .

[10]  S. Morris,et al.  Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks" American Economic Review , 1996 .

[11]  Stephen Morris,et al.  P-dominance and belief potential , 2010 .

[12]  S. Morris,et al.  Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders , 2001 .

[13]  H. Carlsson,et al.  Global Games and Equilibrium Selection , 1993 .

[14]  D. Monderer,et al.  Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs , 1989 .

[15]  S. Morris,et al.  Global Games: Theory and Applications , 2001 .

[16]  M. Obstfeld Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises , 1984 .

[17]  Dov Monderer,et al.  Stochastic Common Learning , 1995 .

[18]  Stephen Morris,et al.  Commonp-Belief: The General Case , 1997 .

[19]  Christina E. Metz,et al.  Private and Public Information in Self-fulfilling Currency Crises , 2002 .

[20]  Robert J. Weber,et al.  Distributional Strategies for Games with Incomplete Information , 1985, Math. Oper. Res..