Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

Summary This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall–runoff (R–R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R–R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce ‘populations’ of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir.

[1]  T. McMahon,et al.  Water Resources Yield , 2005 .

[2]  Thomas A. McMahon,et al.  River and Reservoir Yield , 1987 .

[3]  Adebayo Adeloye,et al.  Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations , 2015, Water Resources Management.

[4]  R. Fealy,et al.  The reliability of an ‘off‐the‐shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model for use in climate impact assessment: uncertainty quantification using Latin hypercube sampling , 2006 .

[5]  Vincent R. Gray Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers , 2007 .

[6]  R. Valencia,et al.  Disaggregation processes in stochastic hydrology , 1973 .

[7]  Daniel P. Loucks,et al.  Sustainability Index for Water Resources Planning and Management , 2011 .

[8]  R. Vogel,et al.  Uncertainty analysis for water supply reservoir yields , 2015 .

[9]  R. K. Linsley,et al.  Some Factors Influencing Required Reservoir Storage , 1971 .

[10]  Daniel P. Loucks,et al.  Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation , 1982 .

[11]  Hayley J. Fowler,et al.  Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling , 2007 .

[12]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change , 2009 .

[13]  T. McMahon,et al.  Stochastic Generation of Monthly Streamflows , 1982 .

[14]  M. M. Portela,et al.  Stochastic Assessment of Reservoir Storage-Yield Relationships in Portugal , 2013 .

[15]  C. Pilling,et al.  High resolution climate change scenarios : implications for British runoff , 1999 .

[16]  H. Fowler,et al.  Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system , 2003 .

[17]  Adebayo Adeloye,et al.  Assessing competing policies at Ubonratana reservoir, Thailand , 2014 .

[18]  Adebayo Adeloye,et al.  Monte Carlo Assessment of Sampling Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Yield in Yorkshire, England , 2006 .

[19]  V. Singh,et al.  Snow and glacier melt contribution in the Beas River at Pandoh Dam, Himachal Pradesh, India , 2007 .

[20]  D. Burn,et al.  A comparison of streamflow generation models for reservoir capacity-yield analysis , 1989 .

[21]  A. Adeloye,et al.  Modelling the impact of climate change on water systems and implications for decision-makers , 2013 .

[22]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[23]  Vijay P. Singh,et al.  Hydrology and Water Resources of India , 2007 .

[24]  P. Mujumdar,et al.  Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change , 2010 .

[25]  M. Montaseri,et al.  Curing the misbehavior of reservoir capacity statistics by controlling shortfall during failures using the modified Sequent Peak Algorithm , 2001 .

[26]  Robert L. Wilby,et al.  Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment , 2005 .

[27]  Thomas A. McMahon,et al.  Understanding performance measures of reservoirs , 2006 .

[28]  Jery R. Stedinger,et al.  The (mis)behavior of behavior analysis storage estimates , 1997 .

[29]  Robert L. Wilby,et al.  From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England , 2009 .

[30]  D. Pierson,et al.  Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment , 2011 .

[31]  H. Thomas Mathematical synthesis of streamflow sequences for the analysis of river basin by simulation , 1962 .

[32]  S. Vicuña,et al.  Agriculture Vulnerability to Climate Change in a Snowmelt-Driven Basin in Semiarid Chile , 2012 .

[33]  Nigel W. Arnell,et al.  Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain , 2003 .

[34]  W. Rippl The capacity of storage reservoirs for water supply , 1883 .

[35]  A. Adeloye Hydrological analysis for the sizing of on-stream water supply reservoirs , 2008 .

[36]  C. Pilling,et al.  The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological processes and extreme flows in the Upper Wye experimental catchment, Mid‐Wales , 2002 .

[37]  Myron B Fiering,et al.  Estimates of resilience indices by simulation , 1982 .

[38]  S. Simonovic,et al.  Sensitivity of reservoir operation performance to climatic change , 1996 .

[39]  T. McMahon,et al.  Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield , 2014 .