Average Regression Surface for Dependent Data

We study the estimation of the additive components in additive regression models, based on the weighted sample average of regression surface, for stationary ?-mixing processes. Explicit expression of this method makes possible a fast computation and allows an asymptotic analysis. The estimation procedure is especially useful for additive modeling. In this paper, it is shown that the average surface estimator shares the same optimality as the ideal estimator and has the same ability to estimate the additive component as the ideal case where other components are known. Formulas for the asymptotic bias and normality of the estimator are established. A small simulation study is carried out to illustrate the performance of the estimation and a real example is also used to demonstrate our methodology.

[1]  O. Linton,et al.  A kernel method of estimating structured nonparametric regression based on marginal integration , 1995 .

[2]  Jianqing Fan,et al.  Data‐Driven Bandwidth Selection in Local Polynomial Fitting: Variable Bandwidth and Spatial Adaptation , 1995 .

[3]  H. Tong Non-linear time series. A dynamical system approach , 1990 .

[4]  P. Hall,et al.  Martingale Limit Theory and its Application. , 1984 .

[5]  M. Wand,et al.  Multivariate Locally Weighted Least Squares Regression , 1994 .

[6]  Alexander B. Tsybakov Robust reconstruction of functions by the local approximation method , 1986 .

[7]  E. Masry Local Polynomial Estimation of Regression Functions for Mixing Processes , 1997 .

[8]  D. Tjøstheim Non-linear Time Series: A Selective Review* , 1994 .

[9]  Wolfgang Härdle,et al.  Direct estimation of low-dimensional components in additive models , 1998 .

[10]  V. Volkonskii,et al.  Some Limit Theorems for Random Functions. II , 1959 .

[11]  Jianqing Fan,et al.  Functional-Coefficient Regression Models for Nonlinear Time Series , 2000 .

[12]  C. J. Stone,et al.  The Use of Polynomial Splines and Their Tensor Products in Multivariate Function Estimation , 1994 .

[13]  Oliver Linton,et al.  Miscellanea Efficient estimation of additive nonparametric regression models , 1997 .

[14]  Elias Masry,et al.  MULTIVARIATE LOCAL POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION FOR TIME SERIES:UNIFORM STRONG CONSISTENCY AND RATES , 1996 .

[15]  Jianqing Fan Local Linear Regression Smoothers and Their Minimax Efficiencies , 1993 .

[16]  C. J. Stone,et al.  Additive Regression and Other Nonparametric Models , 1985 .

[17]  D. Tjøstheim,et al.  Nonparametric Estimation and Identification of Nonlinear ARCH Time Series Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality: Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality , 1995, Econometric Theory.

[18]  R. Engle Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation , 1982 .

[19]  W. Härdle,et al.  A Review of Nonparametric Time Series Analysis , 1997 .

[20]  Elias Masry,et al.  NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ADDITIVE NONLINEAR ARX TIME SERIES: LOCAL LINEAR FITTING AND PROJECTIONS , 2000, Econometric Theory.

[21]  Matt P. Wand,et al.  A Central Limit Theorem for Local Polynomial Backfitting Estimators , 1999 .

[22]  V. V. Gorodetskii,et al.  On the Strong Mixing Property for Linear Sequences , 1978 .

[23]  N. Bingham INDEPENDENT AND STATIONARY SEQUENCES OF RANDOM VARIABLES , 1973 .

[24]  Hua Liang,et al.  Asymptotic normality of pseudo-LS estimator for partly linear autoregression models , 1995 .

[25]  Ruey S. Tsay,et al.  Nonlinear Additive ARX Models , 1993 .

[26]  Ruey S. Tsay,et al.  Functional-Coefficient Autoregressive Models , 1993 .

[27]  Dag Tjøstheim,et al.  Nonparametric Identification of Nonlinear Time Series: Projections , 1994 .

[28]  C. Withers Conditions for linear processes to be strong-mixing , 1981 .

[29]  A S Azari,et al.  Modeling mortality fluctuations in Los Angeles as functions of pollution and weather effects. , 1988, Environmental research.

[30]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Generalized Additive Models , 1991 .

[31]  D. Tjøstheim,et al.  Identification of nonlinear time series: First order characterization and order determination , 1990 .

[32]  C. Granger,et al.  Modelling Nonlinear Economic Relationships , 1995 .

[33]  P. Lewis,et al.  Nonlinear Modeling of Time Series Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) , 1991 .

[34]  David Ruppert,et al.  Fitting a Bivariate Additive Model by Local Polynomial Regression , 1997 .

[35]  H. Müller,et al.  Local Polynomial Modeling and Its Applications , 1998 .

[36]  Dag Tjøstheim,et al.  Additive Nonlinear ARX Time Series and Projection Estimates , 1997, Econometric Theory.

[37]  G. Roussas,et al.  Uniform strong estimation under α-mixing, with rates , 1992 .

[38]  M. Wand,et al.  An Effective Bandwidth Selector for Local Least Squares Regression , 1995 .

[39]  A. A. Weiss,et al.  Semiparametric estimates of the relation between weather and electricity sales , 1986 .

[40]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Linear Smoothers and Additive Models , 1989 .