Tutorial: Physics of failure based prognostics

There are several electrical and mechanical components in various systems such as transistors, ball bearings, solder bond pads, batteries etc. that have existed for a long time and have sufficient failure history and supporting studies on the root cause of these failures. For such cases, the failure mechanism may already be quite well known. With prior knowledge of the physics of failure, a good prognostic study should not just be purely data-driven, but should also consider a mathematical formulation of the failure mechanism that is inserted into the data-driven algorithm as the state update equation. This approach ensures a more robust and accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the component/system. It also enables RUL prediction under variable loading conditions. In this tutorial, we shall look at the detailed step-by-step sequence towards implementing a proper PoF based prognostic study. This includes the smart design of canary test structures, stress and measurement methodology, failure analysis, mathematical model of the failure mechanism from the degradation pattern and subsequent estimation of the RUL. The complete cycle of a PoF based prognostic implementation will be illustrated using a couple of case studies. Challenges and issues with PoF based prognosis will also be discussed in the talk and scope for further research in this area will be presented.