A Novel Methodology for Prioritizing Zero-Carbon Measures for Sustainable Transport

Abstract Achieving a zero-carbon city requires a long-term strategic perspective. Transport emissions are a major source of carbon emissions, and cities grapple with reducing carbon emissions, and improving the air quality for their citizens. London's new transport strategy document, called Mayor's Transport Strategy 2018, aims to achieve a zero-carbon city by 2050 and set out many actions to facilitate this transition. However, London needs a prioritisation framework which would take into account the financial, environmental and social impacts of these actions. Considering the uncertainties around these actions, which has been now significantly more crucial during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study proposes a novel extension of Best-Worst Method (BWM) and extension of the TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for Iterative Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)) method using D numbers. This TODIM-D based fuzzy MCDM approach provides a prioritisation framework for the actions associated with zero-carbon city policies set out in London's strategy document. According to the results of the proposed method, “introducing zero-emission zones” should be selected as the first initiative to implement. The prioritization of this initiative allows London to achieve a zero-carbon transport by having the greatest impact on the modal shift from cars to sustainable mobility modes with a lower operational and implementation cost as well as having greater public support. The proposed method used in this study can be transferred to other cities which aim to achieve a zero-carbon transport.