Expert Judgement for Geological Hazards in New Zealand
暂无分享,去创建一个
[1] Boris Gurevich,et al. Feasibility of CO2 plume detection using 4D seismic: CO2CRC Otway Project case study — Part 2: Detectability analysis , 2015 .
[2] D. Kahneman. Thinking, Fast and Slow , 2011 .
[3] David A. Rhoades,et al. Seismic Hazard Modeling for the Recovery of Christchurch , 2014 .
[4] Nicola Litchfield,et al. Using synthetic seismicity to evaluate seismic hazard in the Wellington region, New Zealand , 2011 .
[5] Natalia I. Deligne,et al. Overview of the co-ordinated risk-based approach to science and management response and recovery for the 2012 eruptions of Tongariro volcano, New Zealand , 2014 .
[6] Mark A. Burgman,et al. A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol , 2018 .
[7] N. Kerr,et al. Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis , 2011 .
[8] Laura M. Wallace,et al. Large-scale dynamic triggering of shallow slow slip enhanced by overlying sedimentary wedge , 2017 .
[9] David A. Rhoades,et al. A Hybrid Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Model for Canterbury, New Zealand , 2016 .
[10] Mark A. Burgman,et al. Expert Status and Performance , 2011, PloS one.
[11] Emmanuel Trouche,et al. Arguments, more than confidence, explain the good performance of reasoning groups. , 2014, Journal of experimental psychology. General.
[12] M. Burgman,et al. The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments , 2018, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[13] D. Winterfeldt,et al. Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis , 2015, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
[14] Daniel Luis Notari,et al. Online newspapers as an effective tool to generate interest in reading for students of Youth and Adult Education , 2017 .
[15] Stephan Hamann,et al. Neural Bases of Motivated Reasoning: An fMRI Study of Emotional Constraints on Partisan Political Judgment in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election , 2006, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience.
[16] David Johnston,et al. Communicating the status of volcanic activity: revising New Zealand’s volcanic alert level system , 2014, Journal of Applied Volcanology.
[17] R. Cooke. Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science , 1991 .
[18] Pilar Villamor,et al. National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update , 2012 .
[19] N. Pletneva. COMMENTARY ON THE INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 31000–2009 “RISK MANAGEMENT. PRINCIPLES AND GUIDELINES” , 2014 .
[20] Roger M. Cooke,et al. TU Delft expert judgment data base , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[21] N. Deligne,et al. Evaluating life-safety risk for fieldwork on active volcanoes: the volcano life risk estimator (VoLREst), a volcano observatory’s decision-support tool , 2018, Journal of Applied Volcanology.
[22] Patrice de Caritat,et al. Safe storage and effective monitoring of CO2 in depleted gas fields , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[23] L. Mendel. PROFESSOR EUGEN BAUMANN. , 1897, Science.
[24] Brendon A. Bradley,et al. A New Zealand‐Specific Pseudospectral Acceleration Ground‐Motion Prediction Equation for Active Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Based on Foreign Models , 2013 .
[25] E. Sanganyado. Book Review: Reason in a Dark Time: Why the Struggle Against Climate Change Failed and What It Means for Our Future , 2018, Front. Earth Sci..
[26] S. Milgram. BEHAVIORAL STUDY OF OBEDIENCE. , 1963, Journal of abnormal psychology.
[27] Matt Gerstenberger,et al. Bi-directional risk assessment in carbon capture and storage with Bayesian Networks , 2015 .
[28] Brendon A. Bradley,et al. NZ-specific pseudo-spectral acceleration ground motion prediction equations based on foreign models , 2010 .
[29] Matthew C. Gerstenberger,et al. A Bayesian network and structured expert elicitation for Otway Stage 2C: Detection of injected CO2 in a saline aquifer , 2016 .
[30] Willy P Aspinall,et al. Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975–77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approach , 2014, Journal of Applied Volcanology.
[31] D. Winterfeldt,et al. Individual and Group Biases in Value and Uncertainty Judgments , 2018 .
[32] Annemarie Christophersen,et al. Bayesian Network Modeling and Expert Elicitation for Probabilistic Eruption Forecasting: Pilot Study for Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand , 2018, Front. Earth Sci..
[33] Division on Earth,et al. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing , 2017 .
[34] J. Biggs,et al. Monitoring Volcanoes , 2012, Science.
[35] Y. Kaneko,et al. Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction‐ Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand , 2018 .
[36] Z. Kunda,et al. The case for motivated reasoning. , 1990, Psychological bulletin.
[37] Dan Bang,et al. Making better decisions in groups , 2017, Royal Society Open Science.
[38] Ting Wang,et al. National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation , 2018, Bulletin of Volcanology.
[39] Roger M. Cooke,et al. On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[40] Victoria Hemming,et al. Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management , 2018, PloS one.
[41] Matthew C. Gerstenberger,et al. Expert elicitation of model parameters for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment: Summary of workshop, methodology and outcomes. , 2018 .
[42] R. Nickerson. Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises , 1998 .
[43] D. Moore,et al. The trouble with overconfidence. , 2008, Psychological review.
[44] A. Tversky,et al. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.
[45] T. Daley,et al. Stage 2C of the CO2CRC Otway Project: Seismic Monitoring Operations and Preliminary Results☆ , 2017 .
[46] Wanwan Hou,et al. Integrated Risk Assessment for CCS , 2013 .
[47] S. Milgram. Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View , 1975 .
[48] A. Tversky,et al. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.
[49] Hadi Ghasemi,et al. The 2018 National Seismic Assessment for Australia: model overview , 2018 .
[50] John Quigley,et al. Elicitation in the Classical Model , 2018 .