Linking appliance efficiency and space conditioning loads in residential energy-demand projections

We describe the incorporation of interaction between appliance efficiencies and spaceconditioning loads into a version of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) computer-simulation model, used by the Northwest Power Planning Council to project residential demand for electricity in the Pacific Northwest. Projections of total demand and estimated impacts of an illustrative appliance efficiency standard are compared with projections generated by the unimproved version of the ORNL model. Projections of total demand by the new model are not greatly different from the projections of the original. However, the new model produces estimates of savings from the illustrative appliance efficiency standard which are substantially less than the original model. We point out unique conditions of the Pacific Northwest which make it impossible to use these results to draw conclusions for other regions.