Identification of Causal Factors and Potential Countermeasures for Fatal Rural Crashes

This project was divided into three phases. In phase 1 ten fatal run-off-road crashes were reconstructed from crash scene diagrams and investigation reports. The authors found evidence of excessive speed in five of these, and a failure to properly use seatbelts in eight of the ten. For seven of these the authors found that barriers complying with Test Level 3 of National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 350 would probably have stopped the crashing vehicle’s encroachment. In phase 2 the authors developed a vehicle trajectory simulation model and used it to reconstruct five fatal median-crossing crashes. The authors found clear evidence of excessive speed in one of these, and in three of the five the encroaching vehicle would probably have been restrained by Test Level 3-compliant barriers. In phase 3 five teams of traffic safety professionals reviewed accident reports from a sample of fatal rural crashes, with the aim of identifying possible causal factors and potential countermeasures. The most frequently identified causal factors were driver inexperience and failure to properly use restraints, while provision of rumble strips, improvements to roadsides or cross-slopes, and provision of guardrails or barriers were the most frequently-cited countermeasures.

[1]  Kay Fitzpatrick,et al.  Driver Perception–Brake Response in Stopping Sight Distance Situations , 1998 .

[2]  J R Stewart,et al.  IDENTIFICATION OF UNSAFE DRIVING ACTIONS AND RELATED COUNTERMEASURES , 1976 .

[3]  Raymond M. Brach,et al.  Vehicle Accident Analysis and Reconstruction Methods , 2005 .

[4]  Donald Geman,et al.  Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs Distributions, and the Bayesian Restoration of Images , 1984, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[5]  Frank S. Barickman,et al.  Driver Crash Avoidance Behavior with ABS in an Intersection Incursion Scenario on Dry Versus Wet Pavement , 1999 .

[6]  B. Ripley Simulating Spatial Patterns: Dependent Samples from a Multivariate Density , 1979 .

[7]  N. Cartwright Causation: One Word, Many Things , 2004, Philosophy of Science.

[8]  P. Holland Statistics and Causal Inference , 1985 .

[9]  Gary A Davis USING GRAPHICAL MARKOV MODELS AND GIBBS SAMPLING TO RECONSTRUCT VEHICLE/PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS , 2000 .

[10]  D C Viano,et al.  CASE STUDY OF VEHICLE MANEUVERS LEADING TO ROLLOVERS: NEED FOR A VEHICLE TEST SIMULATING OFF-ROAD EXCURSIONS, RECOVERY AND HANDLING. IN: OCCUPANT AND VEHICLE RESPONSES IN ROLLOVERS , 2003 .

[11]  A. Raftery,et al.  Inference for Deterministic Simulation Models: The Bayesian Melding Approach , 2000 .

[12]  Barbara J. Peters,et al.  Automotive Engineering and Litigation , 1988 .

[13]  Gary A. Davis,et al.  A Case Control Study of Speed and Crash Risk, Technical Report 3: Speed as a Risk Factor in Run-off Road Crashes , 2006 .

[14]  Michael Creutz,et al.  Confinement and the critical dimensionality of space-time , 1979 .

[15]  A Moser,et al.  Application of the Monte Carlo Methods for Stability Analysis within the Accident Reconstruction Software PC-CRASH , 2003 .

[16]  J. Pearl Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference , 2000 .

[17]  Peter Green,et al.  Markov chain Monte Carlo in Practice , 1996 .

[18]  J R Treat,et al.  TRI-LEVEL STUDY OF THE CAUSES OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. VOLUME II: SPECIAL ANALYSES , 1977 .

[19]  J. Ed Martinez,et al.  A Primer on the Reconstruction and Presentation of Rollover Accidents , 1996 .

[20]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic Evaluation of Counterfactual Queries , 1994, AAAI.

[21]  Kingsley Hendrick,et al.  Investigating Accidents with Step , 1986 .

[22]  L. Devroye Non-Uniform Random Variate Generation , 1986 .

[23]  N. K. Cooperrider,et al.  Testing and analysis of vehicle rollover behavior , 1990 .

[24]  Trevor Kletz,et al.  Learning from Accidents , 2001 .

[25]  John A. Searle,et al.  THE PHYSICS OF THROW DISTANCE IN ACCIDENT RECONSTRUCTION , 1993 .