Predicting and controlling the dynamics of infectious diseases

This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time to isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent parameter that defines the spread of infection. All the preventive measures aim to decrease the average time to isolation under given constraints. The model suggested allows one to generate a “small” number of possible future scenarios and to determine corresponding trajectories of infected population in different regions. Then, this information is used to find an optimal distribution of bed capabilities across countries/regions according to each scenario.